Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-arizona-diamondbacks5/ 縮網址：http://ppt.cc/SqOi Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks by Jim McLennan March 25, 2010 1. What can Arizona expect from Brandon Webb this season? 亞利桑那響尾蛇隊本季能期望Brandon Webb什麼嗎？ The answer to this question, more than any other, will decide the Diamondbacks' season. If he returns to the form shown from 2006-08, when he won more games than any other pitcher in baseball, Arizona will likely have a 1-2-3 to reckon, with Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson following Webb in the rotation. But if he fails to recover, the Diamondbacks could be in for another 2009 season, where the pack of replacement-level pitchers who replaced Webb went 7-20, with a combined ERA of 6.11. 這個問題的答案，比起其他事情，更能決定響尾蛇本季的命運。如果他能回復到06年至08 年間，贏得棒球界最多勝投的表現，響尾蛇隊將能排出三巨投，Webb與Haren及Jackson構 成的堅強輪值。但他若無法及時復原，響尾蛇隊將重現09年的窘境，取代Webb的替補輪值 群去年僅繳出7-20，總合防禦率6.11的成績。 After a setback where his arm felt "stagnant," at the time of this writing, Webb appears to be progressing again, and it's hoped that he will miss only perhaps the first three weeks of the season. It would be too much for him to return to Cy Young level, particularly immediately. But odds are good that he'll be significantly better than any alternatives Arizona might have— journeyman Rodrigo Lopez and rookie Kevin Mulvey are the most likely temporary replacements for Webb in the rotation. 在歷經手臂感覺「死沉」事件後，在我寫這篇文章的同時(3/25)，Webb的復原狀況似乎又 有進展，並且有希望只缺席球季前三週的賽事。期望他重回賽揚身手是太過了，尤其是近 期。但至少他很明顯的比亞利桑那的替補輪值群好─遊走各隊的Rodrigo Lopez、新人 Kevin Mulvey最有可能暫時取代Webb在輪值中的位置。 2. Will the bullpen be more reliable? 牛棚夠罩嗎？ It can hardly be much worse, let's say. Arizona's relief corps was mediocre; its OPS against in 2009 was .734, 12th-best in the NL. But things went downhill when the relievers needed to be at their most effective—in 'Late and Close' situations, the D-backs' overall OPS against jumped by 30 points. This resulted in the team allowing 120 runs in the eighth inning, 25 percent more than any other team in the league. 這麼說吧，應該很難再爛了。亞利桑那的中繼群很普通，去年讓對手打出.734的OPS，國聯 排名第12。但遇到球賽末段比分差距小，最需要牛棚發揮戰力的時候，卻開始崩盤，對手 在這情況的OPS上升0.03。這使得球隊在第八局共丟了120分，比任何聯盟中球隊多出25%。 Some of those involved are no longer with the Diamondbacks, e.g. Tony Peña, Jon Rauch and Scott Schoeneweis, Arizona replacing them by signing veterans Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry over the offseason. Neither man has been very impressive in spring, and it seems possible they will use Juan Gutierrez, who closed for the D-backs after Chad Qualls went on the DL late in 2009, as their main setup man. The LOOGY role is uncertain; Rule 5 pick Zach Kroenke might get it, but rookie Jordan Norberto is an alternative. 當然有些成員已經不在隊上了，如Tony Pena、Jon Rauch及Scott Schoeneweis。亞利桑那 在季後找來了Aaron Heilman及Bob Howry等老將補上這些空缺，但他們春訓的表現都不盡 理想。球隊可能會啟用去年頂替受傷的Chad Qualls關門的Juan Gutierrez，擔綱佈局投手 的工作。一人左投的名額則尚未確定，規則五選來的Zach Kroenke可能取得這個位置，新 秀Jordan Norberto是有力的候補。 3. Is Arizona going to be the beneficiary of bounce-back seasons from its offense? 亞利桑那是否會因攻擊的改善止跌回升？ There are three everyday players on the team who need to return to better levels of production: left fielder/first baseman Conor Jackson, second baseman Kelly Johnson and center fielder Chris Young, and that's probably my order of confidence in the trio. Jackson lost almost all of 2009 after catching valley fever in spring training. It's a vicious, debilitating spore-born lung disease that sapped all his energy and then developed into pneumonia for good measure. He tore up the Dominican Winter League,and is having a good spring, so he could well prove a good sleeper pick for 2010. 有三位固定先發球員需要回到過去良好的水準：左外野兼一壘手Conor Jackson、二壘手 Kelly Johnson以及中堅手Chris Young，而上面的排序也代表我的信心指數順位。Jackson 在去年春訓感染溪谷熱後，幾乎錯過整個球季，這是一種強烈且使人不斷感到疲弱的肺部 黴菌感染，幾乎奪去他的精力，並逐漸發展成肺炎。他在多明尼加冬聯大開殺戒，春訓表 現也不錯，所以今年可能會是逢低買進的好選擇。 Johnson was very solid in 2007-08 but was bad enough last season that the Braves non-tendered him. A BABIP of .247 last year was partly to blame, but a line-drive rate that dropped to 14 percent was also involved; that will need to improve if he is to return to form. Young's main issue in 2009 was that he was an infield pop-up machine, with an IF/FB rate of 28 percent—the next-highest in the majors by a player with that many plate appearances was Yuniesky Betancourt's 22 percent. He did improve over the last month after a spell in Triple-A, but if Young is to live up to the perpetual Mike Cameron comparisons, he needs to start producing this season. Johnson在07-08年表現非常稱職，但去年球季爛透了，使得勇士選擇不和他續約。去年成 績下滑可歸咎於.247的BABIP，但平飛球率下降了14%也是原因之一，而成績要上升的話這 是個很重要的課題。Young在09年的問題是他變成了內野飛球製造機，內野飛球比28%，而 在同樣的出賽水準中，第二名的Yuniesky Betancourt才22%。在下放3A調整後，Young在 球季的最後一個月有所改善，但如果要實現「Mike Cameron再現」的名號，他最好在本季 打出成績。 4. How will A.J. Hinch perform in his first full season as manager? A.J. Hinch身為總教練的第一個完整球季會有什麼表現？ When Hinch was hired to replace Bob Melvin, 29 games into last season, it unleashed a firestorm of criticism, mostly because Hinch had no managerial experience at any level of the game. Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price, who left the team at that point, blasted the new manager, calling his hiring "a poor decision" and saying Hinch "doesn't have any credibility between the lines as a manager." Certainly this posed problems in 2009, with not everyone on board. "There wasn't a rebellion period with A.J., but something similar to that," said Brandon Webb. 當Hinch在去年球季開打29場後取代Melvin，他並沒有因為戰績墊底被鄉民幹爆，主因是他 沒有執教過任何一場職業比賽。當時的投手教練Bryan Price選擇離隊，批評空降Hinch是 「鳥決定」，且說Hinch「以總教頭來說球隊各階層都不信任他」。當然球隊無法齊心的狀 況下，拖垮了09年的戰績。Webb說：「這並不是反抗A.J.，但算是類似的情況。」 However, that now seems to be behind the team—in part due to changes in personnel—with Webb commenting earlier in spring: "He had to earn our trust, and he did. I think he's going over real well. We really like playing for him, his philosophies and stuff." It'll be interesting to see what difference those "philosophies" make: Before spring training, he seemed to be stressing fundamentals such as defense, which were definitely an Achilles' heel for the Diamondbacks in 2009. 然而，這對球隊來說似成過去，部分原因是人事的整頓，Webb在春訓早期評論道：「他需 要取得我們的信任，而他做到了。我認為他做得很好，我們真的很喜歡在他底下打球，還 有他的理念及真才實學。」觀察他的理念為球隊帶來的影響是很有趣的事情：在春訓前， 他特別強調基本功，譬如防守，09年響尾蛇隊的致命傷。 5. Is the back end of the rotation going to fall apart? 輪值後段會垮嗎？ As noted above, last year, the No. 5 spot for the Diamondbacks bordered on the abysmal, and there are multiple uncertainties again this year, once you get past Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson. The team traded away Jon Garland (to the Dodgers, during a game against them) and lost Doug Davis to free agency. They also swapped Max Scherzer and reliever Daniel Schlereth in a three-way trade with the Yankees and Tigers, getting back Jackson and largely unproven No. 4 starter Ian Kennedy. 上述提及，去年響尾蛇隊的五號先發處在絕望邊緣，今年數完Dan Haren和Edwin Jackson 後，後段輪值的那些問題依然存在。球隊將Jon Garland交易出去(到道奇，而且還是比賽 中...)，讓Doug Davis成為自由球員，把Max Scherzer跟中繼新秀Daniel Schlereth在與 洋基、老虎的三方交易中換出去，拿回Jackson以及幾乎沒站穩過的四號先發Ian Kennedy The result is a much less experienced rotation than in 2009. Both Kennedy and expected No. 5 Billy Buckner are young (25), and neither is a proven major league contributor. They have just 30 starts at the highest level between them, with a combined career ERA close to 6. Now, obviously you don't need ace-like performances from that end of your rotation: In the NL, the No. 4 slot typically posts an ERA in the 4.35-5.15 range, with a No. 5 higher than 5.15. However, Jackson and Buckner are basically question marks: While they may surprise us (Kennedy was a first-round pick for the Yankees in 2006), they could also be little better than replacement level. 這造成了一個遠比09年稚嫩的輪值，Kennedy及表定的五號Billy Buckner年紀尚輕(25歲) 而且都沒有證明自己能在大聯盟穩定貢獻。兩人在最高層級加起來僅有30次先發，總合防 禦率將近6。很明顯的，現在輪值後段並不需要王牌等級的成績，國聯的四號先發防禦率在 4.35至5.15間，五號則超過5.15。然而，他們兩個基本上仍是輪值中的問號，雖然他們可 能讓我們大吃一驚(Kennedy是洋基06年選秀第一輪)，但他們也可能跟免洗水準無異。 Jim McLennan blogs over at AzSnakePit.com. He welcomes questions and comments via email. 作者Jim McLennan為知名部落格AzSnakePit的站長。 -- ◆ From: 114.43.109.147 04/01 05:17
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