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選區
宋 韓 宋% 韓% 2020基本盤 2016基本盤
台北01 8621 81709 119658 4.11% 38.91% 56.98% K+ 0.15% K+ 0.79%
台北03 9718 92976 117688 4.41% 42.19% 53.40% K+ 3.73% K+ 4.04%
台北04 11765 105405 135238 4.66% 41.76% 53.58% K+ 3.55% K+ 4.86%
台北05 7976 75516 101349 4.32% 40.85% 54.83% K+ 2.30% K+ 2.75%
台北06 7534 85490 88977 4.14% 46.97% 48.89% K+ 8.24% K+ 9.17%
台北07 7963 81786 95826 4.29% 44.07% 51.64% K+ 5.49% K+ 6.51%
台北08 8722 94950 91829 4.46% 48.57% 46.97% K+10.16% K+11.87%
基隆01 11878 99360 114966 5.25% 43.92% 50.82% K+ 6.31% K+ 7.91%
新北01 12451 104874 146415 4.72% 39.76% 55.51% K+ 1.62% K+ 2.61%
D+ 1.97%
新北07 8297 65199 105401 4.64% 36.44% 58.92% D+ 1.79% D+ 1.45%
新北08 9955 97030 111297 4.56% 44.45% 50.99% K+ 6.14% K+ 7.12%
新北09 8397 92662 84082 4.54% 50.05% 45.42% K+11.72% K+13.09%
新北10 9926 78089 123520 4.69% 36.92% 58.39% D+ 1.26% D+ 0.34%
新北11 9268 111066 100541 4.20% 50.28% 45.52% K+11.61% K+12.22%
新北12 8322 79067 103599 4.36% 41.40% 54.24% K+ 2.89% K+ 2.98%
桃園01 11815 87899 135957 5.01% 37.30% 57.69% D+ 0.56% K+ 1.67%
桃園02 10805 83933 128597 4.84% 37.58% 57.58% D+ 0.45% K+ 1.74%
桃園03 10420 92602 113465 4.81% 42.77% 52.41% K+ 4.72% K+ 8.30%
桃園04 10249 83756 121044 4.77% 38.95% 56.29% K+ 0.84% K+ 2.89%
桃園05 10105 91450 106777 4.85% 43.90% 51.25% K+ 5.88% K+ 8.93%
桃園06 9738 90109 112420 4.59% 42.45% 52.96% K+ 4.17% K+ 7.51%
竹縣01 8488 74482 73662 5.42% 47.55% 47.03% K+10.10% K+12.43%
竹縣02 9947 79742 78718 5.91% 47.35% 46.74% K+10.39% K+14.79%
竹市01 14103 102725 144274 5.40% 39.34% 55.26% K+ 1.87% K+ 4.90%
苗栗01 7205 66717 77409 4.76% 44.09% 51.15% K+ 5.98% K+ 5.21%
苗栗02 8017 97628 69625 4.57% 55.70% 39.72% K+17.41% K+15.54%
D+ 1.49%
台中02 12015 83447 129328 5.34% 37.12% 57.53% D+ 0.40% K+ 0.92%
台中03 9951 73053 116592 4.99% 36.60% 58.41% D+ 1.28% D+ 0.34%
台中04 12211 94415 132227 5.11% 39.53% 55.36% K+ 1.77% K+ 3.80%
台中05 12809 106837 141873 4.90% 40.85% 54.25% K+ 2.88% K+ 4.68%
台中06 10084 77741 117713 4.91% 37.82% 57.27% D+ 0.14% K+ 0.54%
台中07 12249 88095 140678 5.08% 36.55% 58.37% D+ 1.24% D+ 0.56%
台中08 7623 64989 92273 4.62% 39.41% 55.96% K+ 1.17% D+ 0.16%
彰化01 8895 68284 110426 4.74% 36.40% 58.86% D+ 1.73% D+ 0.92%
彰化02 9193 73023 103456 4.95% 39.33% 55.72% K+ 1.41% K+ 1.66%
彰化03 8450 74926 109606 4.38% 38.83% 56.80% K+ 0.33% D+ 1.34%
彰化04 8522 75602 112848 4.33% 38.38% 57.29% D+ 0.16% D+ 0.72%
南投01 6614 67259 72454 4.52% 45.96% 49.52% K+ 7.62% K+ 5.18%
南投02 6701 66532 79592 4.38% 43.53% 52.08% K+ 5.05% K+ 2.75%
澎湖01 2583 20911 27410 5.07% 41.08% 53.85% K+ 3.28% K+ 5.31%
高雄03 8036 92617 137329 3.38% 38.92% 57.71% D+ 0.57% D+ 1.18%
花蓮01 6869 111834 66509 3.71% 60.38% 35.91% K+21.22% K+19.18%
台東01 4163 67413 44092 3.60% 58.28% 38.12% K+19.01% K+17.71%
金門01 1636 35948 10456 3.41% 74.83% 21.77% K+35.37% K+38.12%
連江01 188 4776 1226 3.04% 77.16% 19.81% K+37.32% K+39.58%
--
這次基本盤變化很明顯
用催票率的話會忽略中間選民
該區域蔡英文得票率-全國蔡英文得票率
2016我記得過去有(abc06的文)但不知道是否還找的到?
2012就不知道了
※ 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.44.6.28 (臺灣)※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1579532970.A.3DC.html
推 cycling: YA 不用做了(快逃) 1.174.2.173 01/20 23:10
→ victoryman: 中部真的搖擺州 1.173.104.59 01/20 23:11
→ victoryman: 台北都淡藍色居多 1.173.104.59 01/20 23:12
推 hugoyo: 如果把 得票率 除以 投票率,就可以得到催 132.180.105.45 01/20 23:14
→ hugoyo: 票率了,用這個比加減比較有意義 132.180.105.45 01/20 23:15
→ hugoyo: 乘以XD 講錯 132.180.105.45 01/20 23:15
→ Wayne75: 上色的標準是什麼,為何蔡過半還是藍色 1.162.49.174 01/20 23:41
推 Wayne75: 台北4居然變得比台北3還綠了 1.162.49.174 01/20 23:46
推 ake83611: 桃園的綠化程度有夠恐怖 36.232.228.43 01/20 23:51
→ elainakuo: 國民黨真的有夠慘 220.137.35.174 01/21 00:11
推 Conpana: 台北3蔡的得票率只比16年多了0.08%,綠 223.137.19.184 01/21 00:57
→ Conpana: 化程度有夠少的 223.137.19.184 01/21 00:57
推 Conpana: 南投1應該是唯一由綠翻藍的選區,蔡的得 223.137.19.184 01/21 01:04
→ Conpana: 票率由16年的50.95%減少到49.52% 223.137.19.184 01/21 01:04
推 drhkc: 畢竟是綁立委選舉,立委個人魅力也會連帶影 39.12.32.112 01/21 10:42
→ drhkc: 響 39.12.32.112 01/21 10:42
推 ask77887788: 板橋一個一個票匭翻心hen累 XD 223.140.92.105 01/22 01:45
推 insomeday: 可以請你解釋一下,最右邊兩欄的基本盤 42.72.143.46 01/23 12:37
→ insomeday: 要怎麼看 42.72.143.46 01/23 12:37
推 fsu0401: 請問有2012.2016年的數據嗎?223.136.181.220 01/23 23:42
推 cycling: 我有DPP各選區2008以來得票 但相對我沒打 111.255.21.104 01/25 22:51
→ Akun: 連自己的國民都受害 還敢在網路上帶風向 良 49.216.42.233 01/26 20:04
→ Akun: 心都被狗啃了 49.216.42.233 01/26 20:04
→ yun0112: 都講不好 36.235.55.101 01/26 20:05
→ squalljack: 了,希望這波結束之後還能看到這群柯 101.136.14.70 01/26 20:06
→ squalljack: 蓮娜的中國人,不然都變成共產黨歷史 101.136.14.70 01/26 20:06
→ squalljack: 的一部分而已 101.136.14.70 01/26 20:07
→ fun5566: 今天鼠年大年初2 112.104.138.80 01/26 20:16
推 kenic: 這樣的算法至少一半左右都會說藍的吧 172.56.44.183 01/29 19:28
推 shenyi9185: 苗二韓國瑜拿55%比永和新店都高5%到 220.141.2.192 02/02 18:36
→ shenyi9185: 底是在想什麼 220.141.2.192 02/02 18:36
推 iphone15: 寄件人 吳秉叡立法委員? 111.83.216.174 02/03 12:36
推 inmatao: 這不就網軍? 101.12.61.17 02/13 16:02
噓 cal629195: 又是一隻五毛 36.227.74.91 02/13 20:04
→ emma9956: .. 123.194.10.195 02/14 12:04