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原文標題:
California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in
next five years
原文連結:
https://tinyurl.com/tybhnmzw
發布時間:
THU, DEC 15 20225:18 PM EST
記者署名:
Catherine Clifford
原文內容:
America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and
California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States
are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit
organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.
美國負責評估電網的NGO組織表示,電網正在被推向崩潰點,其中在加州、中西區以及中南
區屬於高風險電力短缺區域。
“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “
normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the
North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.
北美電力可靠組織第54分年度評估表示,被標上紅色的高風險區域極有可能在"正常尖峰"
狀態下出現能源短缺
https://imgur.com/LDtIaW6.jpg
The reasons for the shortfalls vary.
短缺原因各不相同
In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired
than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday.
Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018,
Olson said.
中西區和安大略省問題在於退役的機組裝置容量比新上線的機組還多
In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand
variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in
the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need
the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10
hours during peak summer months in 2024.
加州問題則是多樣化來源和需求變動,再生能源無法跟上需求面的時間點
Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the
United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means
shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot
spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the
elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on
natural gas.
中西區和西部多數都處於黃色風險區域,意味著在極端狀態下會碰到能源短缺
例如糟糕天氣或炎熱天氣下大家會開空調
在新英格蘭冬天使用天然氣發電會造成風險
“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use
of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to
maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.
天然氣存量不足,假如冬天的惡劣氣候持續就有可能發生能源短缺
The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy
generation is low in the region.
西南區也有可能因為風力發電效率低而需求高而產生問題
Extraordinary times
非常時期
“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,
” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on
Thursday.
NERC主管表示,我們正處於一個能源的非常時期
Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out
fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions.
Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have
period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the
wind is still).
氣候變遷導致能源公司逐漸淘汰化石燃料,但再生能源並不是穩定的來源
(如天黑或是無風時)
Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil
fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That
means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from
seven to 15 years, Moura says.
同時再生能源並不能像化石燃料透過運輸運到需求所在地,而是需要透過電網
但電網建造需要7~15年
Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of
cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.
挖礦也是能源消耗增加的原因之一
Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather
events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a
wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.
然後是天氣,NASA認為未來會越來越溫暖潮濕
“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased
reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several
years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather
more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.
"每年我們都看到可靠性受到極端氣候的影響增加"
大裝置容量電力系統受到極端氣候影響比過去任何時間都多
These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC
representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.
這些狀態都讓電網壓力越來越大,NERC催促電力公司加強電網規劃
“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes
to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute
necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the
entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear
that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly
fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”
規劃這一代人退休和來源組合變化來達到穩定能源服務是重要的
管理上必須整合整個體系為基礎,並確定我們不會過早淘汰上一個世代設備
For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the
coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the
coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and
uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be
worthwhile, according to NERC.
NERC長期年度電力穩定評估是基於未來十年,但能源和裝置容量風險則是未來五年
也就是2023~2027
2027年後的狀態有很多不確定性,但未來五年的評估是有高度可能性
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and
enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006.
NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental
agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.
NERC是美國聯邦機構FERC授權評估美國能源穩定的組織
心得/評論:
美國電網壓力看來也是很大,加州再生能源和需求時間差問題也是他們沿役核電原因之一
圖中很明顯看到紅色區域說明
CA: 供給和需求的時間差(再生能源問題)可能造成1-10小時的短缺
MISO: 1300MW短缺來自於需求上升以及機組汰換容量不足
Ontario: 1700MW缺口在2025年,和機組退休速度以及核電維修狀態有關
再生能源對電網造成的壓力比起傳統石化燃料、核能都還高上許多
對能源公司的規劃以及應變也是考驗
--
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推 kaga1991 : 美國很多種小動物 12/16 07:50
推 NoMomoNoLife: 核能大國法國都缺成那樣了 12/16 07:52
推 dayjay : 蔡ee,我任期只到2024,能源與我無關 12/16 07:54
→ tctv2002 : 電子產品種類越來越多 12/16 08:05
推 littenVenus : 美雞電:QQ 缺電尼要講啊! 12/16 08:07
→ jasonkey123 : 2天前吹說核融合發成功,能源革命到來... 12/16 08:08
→ jasonkey123 : 現在又變成缺能源了 12/16 08:08
推 PA5566 : EE 抗議 他抄我 12/16 08:10
推 bcmaple : 看來是不懂用愛發電喔 12/16 08:24
→ buddhawu : 核融合商業化起碼還要數十年,等下輩子可等到 12/16 08:27
→ buddhawu : 缺電卻是現在進行式喔 12/16 08:28
推 lc85301 : 反觀 12/16 08:32
推 yoshilin : 幸好台gg的廠沒設在加州 12/16 08:44
推 ru04hj4 : 意思說核電多蓋一點啦 12/16 08:45
推 Retangle : 現在就各大國在還2010年代因噎廢食的債啊 12/16 08:46
推 pponywong : 加州之前阿諾當州長時 就有過一次電力短缺 12/16 09:03
推 fenix220 : 反觀 12/16 09:23
→ laechan : 這樣還要蓋晶圓廠 12/16 09:29
→ laechan : 論CP值,台灣仍是最理想選擇 12/16 09:30
噓 abiggun : 台灣沒有能源短缺 12/16 09:38
推 k798976869 : 沒錯 電不夠都是垃圾虛擬幣挖礦害的 12/16 09:43
推 Yishanhuang : 礦潮早就過了 12/16 09:47
推 roserule : 反觀某島 五年內缺電還不痛不癢 12/16 09:59
→ roserule : 美國幾個州幾個區 就寫得世界末日…… 12/16 10:00
推 KBchen : 電網要蓋15年喔 12/16 10:02
推 ru04hj4 : 起碼美國人誠實 台灣有「專家」不缺電 12/16 10:08
→ cityport : 這些是regional transmission organizations 12/16 10:09
→ cityport : 指的是電網,不是發電廠 12/16 10:10
→ MacD89 : 加州缺水比台灣嚴重 12/16 10:32
→ MacD89 : 跟缺水比起來電應該還是小問題 12/16 10:33
推 rahim : 缺水就海水淡化開下去就好,不過加州左膠應該不會 12/16 10:45
→ rahim : 同意 12/16 10:45
推 Ripper : 我目前在加州已超過一年,從沒遇過停水停電,在台灣 12/16 10:54
→ Ripper : 倒是每年好幾次。加州這邊的County有時常呼籲節約 12/16 10:54
→ Ripper : 用水用電是沒錯。 12/16 10:54
→ crazydj : 美花說不缺電不缺水 不管你信不信 我是信了 12/16 11:15
→ SILee : 樓樓上,因為停的是農業用水,不是你家。 12/16 11:20
→ SILee : 你沿著i5或ca99走,就會看到一堆農民的抗議布條了 12/16 11:22
→ SILee : 至於說加州沒停電的...就是還太菜了XD 12/16 11:26
推 fenix220 : 台灣停水都是挖路挖斷管線吧 看洗車仔大旱期還是洗 12/16 11:36
→ fenix220 : 得不亦樂乎 12/16 11:36
→ MacD89 : https://i.imgur.com/opkiLCN.jpg 12/16 11:36
→ MacD89 : 不過十年前就一直聽說加州缺水又很少下雨 到現在加 12/16 11:40
→ MacD89 : 州也還活得好好的 漲水價就好了 像台灣這種滿足所 12/16 11:40
→ MacD89 : 有刁民不能漲水價的社會主義式玩法壓力才大 12/16 11:40
噓 patrickk : 調水價的話林伯豐又要喊西進了 12/16 12:21
推 quartics : 加州常停電或跳電好嗎?!比台灣還頻繁多了! 12/16 13:09
推 tokei927 : 加州夏天常停電好唄?沒停電的是住哪啊??? 12/16 13:34
→ fenix220 : 到底誰才是鍵盤加州人? 12/16 13:34
推 tokei927 : https://www.soundofhope.org/post/678744?lang=b5 12/16 13:36
→ tokei927 : 高溫缺電 南加6萬戶停電 華人區受影響 12/16 13:37
→ tokei927 : http://shorturl.at/kxEPR 12/16 13:38
→ tokei927 : 加州灣區宣布進入高溫緊急狀態 大面積停電 12/16 13:38
→ tokei927 : http://shorturl.at/vMWY1 12/16 13:39
推 tokei927 : 到底誰才是鍵盤加州人? 12/16 13:41
推 KBchen : 台灣每年停水停電好幾次? 12/16 13:46
推 Ripper : 聖荷西和聖地牙哥都住過,完全沒遇過停水停電啊。 12/16 13:56
→ Ripper : 這幾年台灣每年停電好幾次有什麼問題嗎?雲台灣人? 12/16 13:56
推 iamten : 加洲很大耶 看在哪吧 12/16 14:03
推 pponywong : 記得還是有呼籲大家節約用水 12/16 14:03
→ iamten : 住公宅 水是免費的 開到爽 耶 12/16 14:04
→ iamten : 管他缺水 美國人就是要浪費才是正港美國人 12/16 14:05
推 chouvincent : 拜登:我任期只到......... 12/16 14:14
推 sanders : 美國的電力系統也是老舊支離破碎 電業民營化更慘 12/16 14:44
→ kenro : 再生能源真的害死人 12/16 15:52
推 Kydland : 美國有些地方會預防性停電 因為預測瞬間風力太大會 12/16 16:42
→ Kydland : 吹落電線造成大火 12/16 16:42
→ eemail : 鄉民只認為台灣會停電 有時那種幾分鐘的也吵成大事 12/16 17:07
→ MacD89 : 印象中除了去年5月缺水水力發電發不上來導致停電 12/16 18:26
→ MacD89 : 沒有什麼印象台灣每年停電好幾次 幾分鐘的那種不算 12/16 18:26
→ MacD89 : 去年5月真的是蔡總統好運 水力發不上去 剛好碰上梅 12/16 18:28
→ MacD89 : 雨來救援 12/16 18:28
→ MacD89 : 不然大概又有一些陰間靈力者在鬼扯什麼德不配位了 12/16 18:29