[外電] 2019 QO

一、新聞來源： MLB 二、新聞標題： Predicting the toughest qualifying offer decisions 三、新聞內容： By Mike Petriello @mike_petriello 23 minutes ago Congrats to the Nationals, winners of the 2019 World Series. Your reward is ... almost no time to celebrate. Teams that didn't make the playoffs have been full speed ahead on 2020 planning for weeks, and the first order of business tends to be deciding on qualifying offer decisions. What that means, if you're not familiar, is that for eligible free agents, teams have five days after the end of the World Series to extend a one-year, $17.8 million contract offer. Players who get one then have 10 days to choose to accept or decline. If it's accepted (which it rarely is, just six times in 80 opportunities since 2012), then the player is signed for the next season. If it's not, any team signing that player will have to forfeit a Draft pick, and the quality of that pick can vary. Last winter, seven players received a qualifying offer -- Patrick Corbin, A.J. Pollock, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal and Hyun-Jin Ryu -- and only one, Ryu, accepted it. So as we've done in the past, it's worth a preview of this year's decisions, looking ahead to who might receive one, and who might accept one. First, let's clear out some of the names who aren't in the conversation. Not eligible due to trades OF Nicholas Castellanos, Cubs // C Travis d'Arnaud, Rays // C Francisco Cervelli, Braves // 2B Eric Sogard, Rays // P Tanner Roark, A's // P Homer Bailey, A's // OF Corey Dickerson, Phillies // OF Yasiel Puig, Indians // C Martín Maldonado, Astros Most of these players wouldn't have been receiving an offer either way, but it doesn't matter because they're not eligible in the first place due to not spending the entire year with the same team. This is likely going to be a nice boost for Castellanos, because he's a good-not-great player, similar to Keuchel last year, and that's exactly the type who tends to get affected by the offer the most. Not eligible due to receiving previous qualifying offers P Dallas Keuchel, Braves // P Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers // C Yasmani Grandal, Brewers // 1B/2B Howie Kendrick, Nationals // 3B Mike Moustakas, Brewers // DH Edwin Encarnación, Yankees (if his team option isn't picked up) // C Matt Wieters, Cardinals // OF Alex Gordon, Royals // C Russell Martin, Dodgers // P Brett Anderson, A's Not everyone on this list would be under consideration to receive one this winter, obviously; a top free agent like Grandal would certainly get one if the Brewers could do it, but lower-end guys like Wieters and Martin definitely wouldn't. Either way, it's irrelevant, since players can only receive the offer once, and everyone listed here has received it in the past. That's good news for players like Keuchel and Moustakas, who have struggled in the market with previous offers. Likely non-offers P Cole Hamels, Cubs // P Rick Porcello, Red Sox // 1B José Abreu, White Sox // P Adam Wainwright, Cardinals // P Rich Hill, Dodgers // 1B Justin Smoak, Blue Jays // OF Nick Markakis, Braves // P Julio Teheran, Braves (if his club option isn't picked up) // P Will Harris, Astros // P Dellin Betances, Yankees // P Kyle Gibson, Twins // 2B Brian Dozier, Nationals // SS José Iglesias, Reds // 3B Todd Frazier, Mets // OF Brett Gardner, Yankees // OF Melky Cabrera, Pirates // OF Avisaíl García, Rays // 2B Ben Zobrist, Cubs // P Alex Wood, Reds // P Michael Pineda, Twins // P Wade Miley, Astros // P Ivan Nova, White Sox // P Michael Wacha, Cardinals Solid players here, and several who will play big roles on 2020 contenders, but for various reasons -- some age, some health, but mostly that none is going to come near $17.8 million on their own in the market anyway -- it's very difficult to see these free agents receiving an offer. That's the question, really: If the answer to "will this player accept the qualifying offer?" is "in a heartbeat, yes," then they're probably not getting one in the first place. Obvious offers, obviously getting declined 3B Anthony Rendon, Nationals P Gerrit Cole, Astros P Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (if he opts out of 4 years, $100 million) DH J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (if he opts out of 3 years, $62.5 million) Rendon and Cole are going to be by far the two most highly sought-after free agents this year, each likely to receive a contract north of $200 million. That being the case, there's no chance whatsoever they're accepting an offer of a single year and $17.8 million, so the Nationals and Astros will extend an offer they know won't be accepted just so they can recoup a Draft pick. The other three here may or may not opt out -- Strasburg definitely should, Martinez probably shouldn't -- but if they do, they'll get qualifying offers, and they'll decline them. This has all been chalk so far, laying out who can't get one, who won't get one and who would obviously decline one. What about the most interesting choices? Which players might get one and might take it? On the bubble 3B Josh Donaldson, Braves Donaldson's offer should be a no-brainer, and it probably will be, but we'll at least spend a second on it anyway, since he'll be 34 in December and the Braves had to shift third-base prospect Austin Riley to the outfield because of Donaldson this season. None of it matters; after two injury-plagued seasons, Donaldson stayed healthy (155 games) and productive (.259/.379/.521, 37 homers), while Riley struggled to make contact after a hot start. The Braves would be thrilled to get one more year of Donaldson, but after the season he just had, he's certainly not looking for a pay cut from the $23 million he just earned. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer P Madison Bumgarner, Giants There's little doubt that Bumgarner will receive an offer; that much seemed clear from the moment the Giants chose not to trade him in July, and after he threw 207 2/3 productive innings. He probably won't accept it, though don't rule out the possibility entirely. Bumgarner could easily get multiple years as a free agent, but teams worried about his high hard-hit rate and relatively low velocity may not give him more than $18 million annually for those multiple years. So don't count this out, but he's probably declining it. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer P Will Smith, Giants Relief pitchers generally don't get qualifying offers, at least not those who haven't been top-tier closers in the past like Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen, and this would represent a pretty massive raise from the $4.3 million Smith made this year. But Smith was really good this year, striking out 96 in 65 1/3 innings and making the All-Star team, and the Giants may want to get something more out of him after declining to trade him in July. This is more than the Giants would probably want to pay him, but they can afford it, and then they'd still have him available to trade next summer. That's because if Smith received the offer, he'd definitely accept it. Prediction: Receives offer / accepts offer SS Didi Gregorius, Yankees In Gregorius' first four years as a Yankee, he was one of the most productive shortstops in the game, but Tommy John surgery last year limited his 2019 season to just 82 games, without a terribly impressive amount of production (.238/.276/.441 and negative defensive ratings). With the Yankees having other options in the infield -- Gleyber Torres could play shortstop with DJ LeMahieu at second base, and don't forget a recovering Miguel Andújar is in the mix with Gio Urshela at third as well -- the guess here is that he'd happily take a nice raise from the $11.8 million he made this year, and so the Yankees won't offer it, preferring to target an ace like Cole or Strasburg. Prediction: Does not receive offer P Aroldis Chapman, Yankees (if he opts out) Speaking of the Yankees, could Chapman opt out of the remaining two years and $32 million he's due? There was a report over the summer that said he would almost certainly do so, though Chapman was quick to shoot that down. It seems likely he might opt out, and if he does, then it also seems likely the Yankees would extend him a qualifying offer. That all sounds messy, though, so the best outcome here might be that the two sides just agree to tack on another year or two rather than go through all of this. Prediction: The Yankees avoid all of this by extending his contract OF Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince recently dug into the ins and outs of Ozuna's free-agent case, so let's let him take it away: "There has long been room for the Cards to stretch that payroll without venturing into luxury tax territory, and one-year commitments obviously aren’ t as painful or punitive as multiyear deals that don’t work out," wrote Castrovince. "Ozuna -- who says he would love to stay in St. Louis -- might be the rare candidate to take the qualifying offer (for reasons we’ll get to in a second), but that shouldn’t scare the Cardinals off from extending it." That sounds right. If we learned anything about the St. Louis offense this year, it's that its offense isn't good enough, and losing one of its best hitters wouldn't help with that. Prediction: Receives offer / accepts offer or signs extension with Cardinals P Zack Wheeler, Mets Over the last two years, Wheeler has proven he's one of the better starting pitchers in baseball, not exactly on the Cole / Jacob deGrom tier, but someone you could comfortably call a Top 20 or so starter. That's incredibly valuable, and after years of injuries, he's been durable too, throwing 377 2/3 innings in 2018 and '19. The Mets already need to add pitching depth, not subtract it, and so there's no good reason for them to not extend the offer. He'd consider accepting it, but as he turns 30 next summer, he'd probably rather look for that long-term deal while the looking is good. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer P Jake Odorizzi, Twins Here's why the Twins would consider this: Because their 2020 rotation currently consists of José Berríos and not much else. That undersells Odorizzi somewhat, of course, because he did have a solid 2019 season for Minnesota, throwing 159 innings with a 3.51 ERA, but this is about strategy as much as anything else. An Odorizzi unencumbered by the offer could probably get a nice multiyear deal, but he's exactly the kind of mid-level player who struggles to find a new home after being given an offer, so he would almost certainly accept rather than face a long winter. Would the Twins really gamble on doubling his salary to prevent him from leaving? There's a good argument that they should -- and potentially compromise on a multiyear deal in the process -- but we'll bet it doesn't actually happen. Prediction: Does not receive offer 四、新聞網址： www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-tough-2019-20-qualifying-offer-decisions 五、備註： (1) 球隊在世界大賽結束後五天內，決定是否要提合格報價制度(Qualifying Offer, QO) 給今年在該隊待滿整季、成為自由球員(FA)的選手，球員則是有10天的時間考慮是否要接 受QO，今年的價碼是17.8M，過去被提過的80位球員中僅有6位球員接受QO。 (2) 歷年QO金額與人數(資料來源：waiting0801大大的#1Q0I2XXr (MLB)) 2012 $13.3MM (0人接受) 2013 $14.1MM (0人接受) 2014 $15.3MM (0人接受) 2015 $15.8MM (3人接受：Matt Wieters、Colby Rasmus、Brett Anderson) 2016 $17.2MM (2人接受：Jeremy Hellickson、Neil Walker) 2017 $17.4MM (0人接受) 2018 $17.9MM (1人接受：Hyun-Jin Ryu) 2019 $17.8MM (???) (3) 今年被交易的球員不能提QO：Nicholas Castellanos、Travis d'Arnaud、Francisco Cervelli、Eric Sogard、Tanner Roark、Homer Bailey、Corey Dickerson、Yasiel Puig 、Martin Maldonado。 (4) 以前已經提過QO的也不能提QO：Dallas Keuchel、Hyun-Jin Ryu、Yasmani Grandal、 Howie Kendrick、Mike Moustakas、Edwin Encarnación、Matt Wieters、Alex Gordon、 Russell Martin、Brett Anderson。 (5) 會收到QO但很明顯會拒絕的球員： A. Anthony Rendon B. Gerrit Cole C. Stephen Strasburg：作者認為必會跳出合約。 D. J.D. Martinez：作者認為可能不會跳出合約，如果跳出合約會拒絕QO。 (6) 可能不會收到QO的球員： A. 1B：José Abreu、Justin Smoak。 B. 2B：Brian Dozier、Ben Zobrist。 C. 3B：Todd Frazier。 D. SS：José Iglesias。 E. OF：Nick Markakis、Brett Gardner、Melky Cabrera、Avisaíl García。 F. SP：Cole Hamels、Rick Porcello、Adam Wainwright、Rich Hill、Julio Teheran(若 球團未執行選擇權)、Kyle Gibson、Alex Wood、Michael Pineda、Wade Miley、Ivan Nova、 Michael Wacha。 G. RP：Will Harris、Dellin Betances。 (7) 給QO與否比較兩難的球員： A. 3B Josh Donaldson, Braves：要不要提給Donaldson QO還要再想想，考量到12月他就 滿34歲了，而且勇士隊還有三壘潛力新秀Austin Riley，他因為Donaldson的關係移防到外 野。Donaldson在前兩年飽受傷痛所苦，今年健康地出賽155場、繳出.259/.379/.521, 37轟的成績，而新秀Riley在開季火燙的表現後卻陷入低潮，因此勇士隊可能跟Donaldson 再續一年，不過Donaldson很明顯要索取比去年$23MM/1YR更大張的合約。 作者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 B. P Madison Bumgarner, Giants：幾乎不用懷疑巨人隊會開QO給他，從今年季中決定不 予交易及207.2局的投球量可以看出端倪，Bumgarner方面可能不會接受，但也不能完全確 定。Bumgarner可以輕而易舉地拿到複數年約，但球隊仍會擔心他的高強勁擊球率及球速遞 減情形，而選擇不開給他年平均高於$18MM的複數年約，因此不要排除他接受QO的可能， 但他的確可能會拒絕。 作者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 C. P Will Smith, Giants：除了如頂級後援投手如Kimbrel或Jansen，一般來說後援投手 不會收到QO，不過很明顯地Smith明年的薪水將會比今年的$4.3MM成長不少。Smith今年繳 出非常好的成績，在65.1局中繳出96次三振並入選明星賽，而從今年七月巨人隊未選擇交 易他就知道球隊另有所求，作者認為巨人隊會開QO且他會接受，一方面巨人隊可負擔他的 薪水，另方面謀求明年夏天交易的可能性。 作者預測：接到QO/球員接受。 D. SS Didi Gregorius, Yankees：在洋基隊待了四個球季的他，在游擊的位置做出不少 貢獻，但他今年卻因為動Tommy John手術僅出賽82場比賽、繳出.238/.276/.441且不太好 的防守表現。對洋基隊來說，內野的位置還有其他選擇，如Gleyber Torres守游擊、DJ LeMahieu守二壘、三壘也有Miguel Andújar跟Gio Urshela做搭配，考慮到明年 Gregorius的薪水比今年$11.75MM高，所以洋基可能不會開QO給他，而是挪去爭取Cole或 Strasburg的加盟。 作者預測：不會收到QO。 E. P Aroldis Chapman, Yankees (if he opts out)：Chapman到底會不會跳出$32MM/2YR 的合約？今年夏天就有傳聞說他幾乎確定會跳出合約，但他本人很快地予以否認。不過他 的確很可能會跳出合約，如果真的跳出合約，洋基隊也會開QO給他。作者認為比較好的方 式是兩方好好談談延長合約。 作者預測：洋基隊會開延長約給他。 F. OF Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals：對紅雀隊而言，距離豪華稅線還有很充裕的薪資空間 ，不論是提一年或複數年約給Ozuna對球隊來說負擔不會太重，而Ozuna可能是少數會接受 QO的球員，他過去曾表示希望能留下來。另一方面，從紅雀隊今年的打擊表現來看，的確 有進步的空間，因此失去一位好打者對此沒有幫助。 作者預測：接到QO/球員接受，或是跟紅雀隊簽延長約。 G. P Zack Wheeler, Mets：Wheeler在過去兩年已證明他是位好的先發投手，雖然沒有到 Cole或deGrom般的等級，但排在前20名是綽綽有餘。經過數年的傷痛期，這兩年共投了 377.2局，對大都會來說投手深度仍需補強，提出QO給他是很合理的作法。而對Wheeler來 說，他有可能會考慮接受QO，但明年將滿30歲的他更可能尋求一張長約。 作者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 H. P Jake Odorizzi, Twins：以下是為什麼雙城隊會考慮開QO給他的原因：2020年雙城隊 的先發輪值除了José Berríos確定外其他都還是未知數，而願意開QO給Odorizzi也是因 為他今年繳出很好的表現，159局中繳出3.51 ERA，不過開QO與否也會影響他未來的合約大 小。屬於中段輪值的他，如果他沒收到QO，他可以爭取到不錯的複數年約；如果收到QO， 則可能很難有球隊願意提長約給他，因此他如果收到QO幾乎會接受。那雙城隊會願意出兩 倍薪留給他嗎？有一種不錯的想法是如果雙城試圖簽回他，會開一張複數年合約，但作者 認為這不會發生。 作者預測：不會收到QO。 --
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推 ppphantasy: José Abreu有這麼慘?? QQ 11/01 19:14

→ saiulbb: 選秀權問題請參考WillWaiting大大的文章#1OGFUta2 11/01 19:18

→ LucasDuda: Abreu很慘 11/01 19:30

→ LucasDuda: Wheeler no brain，比他大咖的SP就Cole，頂多再一個小 11/01 19:31

→ LucasDuda: 史而已。 11/01 19:32

推 MaxScherzer: 原來收過QO 11/01 19:34

→ rn940111: 有些其實還蠻不用思考的不知道為什麼兩難 11/01 19:36

推 MaxScherzer: 就不能再被提 11/01 19:39

推 bestteam: Wheeler有到全聯盟前20名的投手? 還是單指國聯 11/01 19:40

→ saiulbb: 他提供的網址是WAR排名 2018-19的WAR在前20內 第10名 11/01 19:44

推 zouelephant: 還是希望小史留在國民 Rendon讓他飛吧 11/01 19:52

→ weed222: 感覺我梅沒辦法留住Wheeler ..... 11/01 20:01

推 synchron: Rendon也是國民一手養起來的球星，我認為國民會都留 11/01 20:09

推 ChrisDavis: 留下去薪資就要破兩億下去繳稅了很硬 11/01 20:12

推 daniel0202: 小史 rendon都是國民養起來的 應該都不會放吧 11/01 20:12

→ ChrisDavis: 2020沒有Rendon 小史不跳出就已經151M了 11/01 20:12

→ ChrisDavis: Rendon預計一張AAV30起跳的 小史算25就好加起來就55 11/01 20:13

→ ChrisDavis: 未來還有Trea跟Soto要綁 簽下去會很硬的 11/01 20:14

→ borriss: 拿完冠軍還想不想花錢就是個問題了(X 11/01 20:18

→ ChrisDavis: 拿冠軍接下來有本錢可以擺爛XD 11/01 20:19

推 vg175: Soto跟小史Rendon同一個經紀人 綁不起來啦 除非球員本人續 11/01 20:30

→ vg175: 留意願強烈 像Weaver弟、小史或XB那樣 11/01 20:30

推 whhw: Porcello也fa惹 11/01 21:35

推 Jeffrey0221: 都留TT可能就放了 看Kieboom能不能養起來 11/01 21:48

推 andy880036s: Odorizzi的中段輪值被打成"中斷"囉 11/02 02:00

→ andy880036s: 推長文 辛苦惹 11/02 02:00

推 searoar: 11/02 18:52

推 jeter8695: 推 11/02 20:34