[外電] 2018 QO

一、新聞來源： MLB 二、新聞標題：(中文翻譯從第11頁開始) (1) Predicting the toughest qualifying offer decisions (2) 5 players who might jump at a qualifying offer 三、新聞內容： (1) By Mike Petriello MLB.com @mike_petriello Oct. 29th, 2018　 作者自誇去年預測結果全命中XD Before we can get to the fun of trades and free agency, we have to get one piece of bookkeeping out of the way: qualifying offers. That's the process when teams must decide whether to extend a one-year, $17.9 million contract to eligible free agents; the offers must come within five days of the end of the World Series (deadline is Friday at 5 p.m. ET), and the players who receive them have 10 days to accept or reject the offer. If they turn it down and sign elsewhere, their former team can gain some compensation in return. For the most part, the drama is in who receives an offer, not who accepts one. In the six previous offseasons with this system in place, there have been 73 qualifying offers issued, and only five (Brett Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Neil Walker, Colby Rasmus and Matt Wieters) have accepted them. That said, last year we saw what difficulty players like Alex Cobb, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn had in the market after turning down an offer. Will that affect decisions this year? Either way, there are some very interesting names out there this year. So just as we did last year, let's make some predictions of who will receive one and what they'll do with it. (Last year, we predicted nine offers would be extended, and all would be declined. We went 9-for-9.) For our purposes, we're assuming that players with opt-out clauses like Clayton Kershaw and David Price will remain with their current team, though they are eligible to receive the offer if they don't. Not eligible due to trades Only players who spent the entire year with the same team are eligible to receive an offer, so players like Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, Zach Britton, Nathan Eovaldi, Josh Donaldson, Matt Harvey, Brian Dozier, J.A. Happ and Wilson Ramos aren't part of the discussion. Not eligible due to previous qualifying offers Players may only receive the offer once, so Nelson Cruz, Walker, David Robertson and Daniel Murphy (who was traded this year anyway) won't be receiving another. Obvious offers, definitely getting declined OF Bryce Harper, Nationals SP Patrick Corbin, D-backs There's not much to discuss here. Harper, like Machado, is a generational talent who is going to get a record-shattering contract. The Nationals will give him the offer just for the compensation, with no expectation he'd actually take it. (He won't.) Corbin is the best pitcher available on the market. One note: There is a chance Washington could re-sign Harper, in which case Draft-pick compensation would not be a factor, but it's hard to see Arizona bringing Corbin back. Likely non-offers OF Adam Jones, Orioles; C Jonathan Lucroy, A's; 3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers; RP Cody Allen, Indians; RP Adam Ottavino, Rockies; OF Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies; 2B DJ LeMahieu, Rockies; SS Freddy Galvis, Padres; OF Nick Markakis, Braves; SP CC Sabathia, Yankees; OF Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians; RP Justin Wilson, Cubs; DH Evan Gattis, Astros; IF Daniel Descalso, D-backs; Marwin Gonzalez, Astros It's not that these players aren't good, of course. We just wrote about how Ottavino is likely to hit it relatively big this offseason. Most will get jobs and many will add value in 2019, but if offered $17.9 million for next year, each of these players -- due to age, injury or poor performance -- would probably take it in an instant, knowing they'd never make that much annually on the free-agent market. That's a good sign that it won't be offered. There's a strong case for the Astros to offer Gonzalez -- they probably should -- but they reportedly will not. Everything so far has been pretty straight forward. We're left with these actual decisions to be made ... On the bubble RP Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox Kimbrel may very well be on a Hall of Fame track, and the only reason we're not calling this a slam dunk is because the Red Sox just exceeded the luxury tax again and Kimbrel showed some slight weaknesses in a career-high home run rate and a walk rate twice as high as it was in 2017. That said, he's only 30 and he'll get a big deal somewhere, so he wouldn't take this. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer SP Dallas Keuchel, Astros Like Kimbrel, there are some warning signs here: Keuchel's strikeout rate dropped to a below-average 17.5 percent, and his ground-ball rate dropped from an elite 66.8 percent to a merely strong 53.7 percent. But since he turns 31 on New Year's Day, this is probably his last shot at a big contract. The Astros will reportedly extend an offer, but Keuchel likely won't take it. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer SP Charlie Morton, Astros Over his two years with Houston, Morton has a similar ERA to Carlos Carrasco and the same strikeout rate as Blake Snell in about as many innings. While he's turning 35 next month, the performance has been stunning, and it's likely that the Astros would be thrilled to have him back for one year. Morton could do better than that on the market, but not at $17.9 million per year, and 35 year olds with injury histories may not want to be out there with the qualifying offer on them anyway. Let's hedge our bets on this one. Prediction: Receives offer but signs two-year deal with Houston anyway CF A.J. Pollock, D-backs If Pollock could ever stay healthy -- he's taken 500 plate appearances in a season just once, back in 2015 -- he'd be one of the most desirable free agents on the market. He still might be, because at his best, he's a star-level player who pairs an above-average bat with strong center-field play, plus value on the bases. Pollock will turn 31 in December, which means he won't pass up a chance to show he's the best outfielder available other than Harper. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer C Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers Generally, arguments that postseason performance can significantly enhance or injure free-agent prospects are overblown, but Grandal's October was so disappointing that he might be the exception to the rule. That said, the state of catching in baseball is weak these days, and his .241/.349/.466 with 24 homers and elite pitch framing makes him a desirable target in a very slim field. There's some chance the Dodgers don't offer and also a chance that Grandal accepts, but we'll assume that his agents will focus on his very good regular season over his high-profile postseason failures. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer RP Andrew Miller, Indians Miller's four-year, $36 million free-agent deal after the 2014 season seemed large at the time, but it's proven to be one of the greatest values in recent history, for the teams, anyway. However, he was on the disabled list three times this year (hamstring, knee, shoulder), and he never really looked like his dominant self. There's plenty of reason to believe Miller can rebound, but Cleveland isn't going to risk doubling his salary to find out. Prediction: Does not receive offer LF Michael Brantley, Indians When the Tribe picked up Brantley's $12 million option last year, it seemed like a huge risk given his recent injury history, but he repaid it and then some with a .309/.364/.468 line, getting into 143 games. With Brantley and Chisenhall headed to free agency and Bradley Zimmer likely to miss time after shoulder surgery, Cleveland's 2019 outfield looks incredibly weak -- you can't start Leonys Martin, Greg Allen and Tyler Naquin -- so it'd welcome Brantley back for a single year. He's likely to test the market, however. Prediction: Receives offer / declines offer SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers Speaking of injury histories, Ryu has thrown fewer innings in the past four seasons (213 2/3) than Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber or Justin Verlander did just in 2018. He got into just one game in 2015-16 thanks to shoulder and elbow issues, then missed time since due to hip, foot and groin problems. When Ryu is healthy, however, he's often very good -- in the 82 1/3 innings he threw this year, he had a sparkling 1.97 ERA. Still, he wouldn't get this much per year on the market, and he won't get the offer here. Prediction: Does not receive offer 2B Jed Lowrie, A's After something of an up-and-down year, Lowrie has been outstanding for the past two seasons, hitting a combined .272/.356/.448 with 37 home runs, even briefly shifting to third base when necessary. But he turns 35 in April, has never made more than $8 million in a season and is looking at a lot of competition at second base on the market (Dozier, Murphy, LeMahieu). Lowrie would all but certainly jump at this offer, and the A's aren't likely to extend one to him. Prediction: Does not receive offer (2) By Richard Justice MLB.com @RichardJustice 12:57 AM EDT This Friday at 5 p.m. ET is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers for impending free agents. For some, it's a right-place, right-time kind of thing. Sign on the dotted line, and your 2018 salary is set at $17.9 million. Rather than dip their toe into free agency's choppy waters, the player can kick the can down the road and hope for (a) a better year, (b) better health, (c) better luck or (d) all of the above. That $17.9 million salary has gotten so large that teams are increasingly cautious about extending a qualifying offer to all but a handful of players. Last season, nine players got qualifying offers, and all were rejected. (Reminder: Players who were traded during the season cannot receive a qualifying offer, and players who have previously gotten one cannot get it again.) This offseason, we know that Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and one or two more will get offers. None of them will accept, joining the 92.5 percent of players who've passed on qualifying offers the last six seasons. Plenty of others might just jump at one. Let's consider five: 1. Charlie Morton, RHP: He'll turn 35 in a couple of weeks and is coming off his best season (30 starts, 3.13 ERA, 10.8 K/9). But he dealt with a cranky shoulder in the final month of the season, and seems to have at least toyed with the idea of retirement. If he does pitch again, he has said he'll remain with the Astros. 2. A.J. Pollock, CF: He has averaged 79 games for the Diamondbacks the last three seasons, which could impact his appeal in free agency. When he's healthy, he's one of the best outfielders in the game, but he has played 150 games just once in his career. At 30, Pollock could accept a qualifying offer and try again in a year, when he might have more leverage for a long-term deal. 3. Andrew Miller, LHP: He was on the disabled list three times this season and had his toughest season since moving to the bullpen in 2012. He could almost double his 2018 salary with a qualifying offer. The Indians are unlikely to offer it, and that's partially because they know Miller might take it. 4. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP: The Dodgers would be happy to pay him $17.9 million if they were confident he could repeat his 2018 numbers (1.88 ERA, nine starts in August and September). Problem is, Ryu missed virtually all of the 2015-2016 seasons with a bad shoulder, and at 31, the qualifying might be too much of a gamble for the Dodgers. 5. Jed Lowrie, INF: He's coming off a second straight strong year (4.9 fWAR) and made $6 million in 2018. He's also 34, and while he could probably get more total money on a two-year deal, a qualifying offer makes sense for Lowrie and possibly even the A's. 四、新聞網址： www.mlb.com/news/5-players-who-might-welcome-a-qualifying-offer/c-300079262 https://www.mlb.com/news/toughest-qualifying-offer-choices/c-299747254 五、備註： (1) 球隊在世界大賽結束後五天內，決定是否要提合格報價制度(Qualifying Offer, QO) 給今年在該隊待滿整季、成為自由球員(FA)的選手，球員則是有10天的時間考慮是否要接 受QO，而今年提QO的截止日期是美國時間周五下午五點，價碼是17.9M。 (2) 歷年QO金額與人數(資料來源：waiting0801大大的#1Q0I2XXr (MLB)) 2012 13.3M (0人接受) 2013 14.1M (0人接受) 2014 15.3M (0人接受) 2015 15.8M (3人接受：Matt Wieters、Colby Rasmus、Brett Anderson) 2016 17.2M (2人接受：Jeremy Hellickson、Neil Walker) 2017 17.4M (0人接受) 2018 17.9M (???) (3) 今年被交易的球員不能提QO：Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, Zach Britton, Nathan Eovaldi, Josh Donaldson, Matt Harvey, Brian Dozier, J.A. Happ and Wilson Ramos。 (4) 以前已經提過QO的也不能提QO：Nelson Cruz, Neil Walker, David Robertson and Daniel Murphy。 (5) 會收到QO但很明顯會拒絕的球員： 1. Bryce Harper：國民可能提約給他，但他也可能不接受。 2. Patrick Corbin：今年FA的SP中最好的投手，響尾蛇很難簽回來。 (6) 可能不會收到QO的球員： C Jonathan Lucroy, A's; 2B DJ LeMahieu, Rockies; 3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers; SS Freddy Galvis, Padres IF Daniel Descalso, D-backs; Marwin Gonzalez, Astros OF Adam Jones, Orioles; Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies; Nick Markakis, Braves; Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians; SP CC Sabathia, Yankees; RP Cody Allen, Indians; RP Adam Ottavino, Rockies ; RP Justin Wilson, Cubs DH Evan Gattis, Astros; (7) 給QO與否比較兩難的球員： A. RP Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox：紅襪超越了豪華稅線、Kimbrel在季後賽投的有點不穩、 今年被全壘打跟保送率是生涯新高；但就算他不留紅襪，其他球隊也會開大約給他。 記者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 B. SP Dallas Keuchel, Astros：跟Kimbrel的案例類似，31歲的他今年三振率低於平均 (17.5%)、滾地球比率從66.8%降至53.7%，太空人據傳會開延長約，但他應該不會接受。 記者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 C. SP Charlie Morton, Astros：下個月就滿35歲的Morton表現還是很猛，以他的成績可 能拿到比QO更多的薪水，但今年九月他曾因肩膀不舒服進DL，考量到他的年紀跟傷病史， 不給他QO也有可能。 記者預測：會收到QO但太空人會提兩年約給他。 D. CF A.J. Pollock, D-backs：今年底就31歲的他最大的問題是健康，他的攻擊、中外野 守備、跑壘水準都高於聯盟平均。 記者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 E. C Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers：儘管在季後賽表現令人失望，但在例行賽有砲管、傑出 的接好球能力，讓他在捕手位置成為熱門的補強目標。 記者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 F. RP Andrew Miller, Indians：自從2012年轉戰牛棚後，近年表現最好的後援投手之一 ，但他今年曾三度進DL(大腿筋、膝蓋、肩膀等)，表現也沒有往年這麼殺，雖然他有反彈 的可能，但印地安人沒必要開QO冒這個險。 記者預測：不會收到QO。 G. LF Michael Brantley, Indians：雖然他今年表現的很好、也十分健康，但仍需考量他 豐富的傷病史。另一方面，他跟Chisenhall進FA、Zimmer動肩膀手術，也意味著明年印地 安人外野陣容相當薄弱，開一年QO給他也不算差，但他也可能不接受QO進市場測試身價。 記者預測：接到QO/球員拒絕。 H. SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers：當說到傷病史，柳賢振也不惶多讓，如2015-16有肩膀跟 手肘的傷勢僅先發1場，在臀部、腳部、腹股溝也有傷痛過，過去四季僅投213.2局。但他 健康的時候表現很不錯，像今年主投82.1局ERA僅1.97，不過大家也知道不會以今年的成 績當作簽他的參考，以今年的表現是很值得開QO，但對道奇來說也蠻冒險的。 記者預測：不會收到QO。 I. 2B Jed Lowrie, A's：歷經過去幾年的起起伏伏，這兩年他打出亮眼的成績(今年 4.9 fWAR)，除了守二壘偶爾也可以客串守三壘。然而，以運動家的角度來看，他明年就35歲， 單季最高薪就$8MM，市場上也有其他二壘手可以選擇，像是Dozier、Murphy、LeMahieu， 開QO他很明顯會接受，所以運動家看起來不會開QO給他，不過倒是可以考慮以同樣的金額 簽兩年約。 記者預測：不會收到QO。 -- 謝謝分享，這部分請參考WillWaiting大大的文章#1OGFUta2。
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推 he00125965: 看成2018 QQ 11/01 20:48

推 raysbuck: 拜託AJP要留下 11/01 20:55

推 jefftie2000: 原來不是只有我看成QQ 11/01 21:08

推 taxlaw1991: 翻譯有點問題 Receives offer / declines offer 是 11/01 21:08

→ taxlaw1991: 接到QO/球員拒絕 不是接不接都有可能啦 11/01 21:09

→ saiulbb: 我會錯意了 等等改謝謝 11/01 21:10

推 polanco: 還在想2018有什麼事情要QQ的 11/01 21:10

推 kuso10582: 看成2018 QQ +1 11/01 21:16

推 Terry1984: 看成2018 QQ +1 11/01 21:34

→ borriss: 收下QO也很可怕(X 11/01 21:38

推 BlGP: 其實我一直不理解 接受QO之後簽的約是必須要超過QO價格？ 11/01 22:21

→ BlGP: 但是年限不受限制 只要平均年薪超過QO價碼即可？ 11/01 22:21

推 KKyosuke: QO是一份一年約 價碼是MLB前125貴的年薪的平均 11/01 22:27

推 kk2025: QO就是一年約，要簽就簽不簽拉倒這樣吧。我是覺得有檢討空 11/01 22:28

→ kk2025: 間... 11/01 22:28

→ KKyosuke: 如果球隊提QO給球員 球員拒絕 那麼球員就能自由進FA 11/01 22:29

→ KKyosuke: 但是簽下球隊的新隊伍要賠選秀權 11/01 22:29

→ bestteam: QO超貴 11/01 22:35

推 BlGP: 喔喔 所以接受QO必定就是一年約 而且價格就是固定那個數字 11/01 22:37

→ billgreenoil: · 11/01 22:59

推 catsondbs: 看到去年那個FA市場今年球團應該很怕了 11/01 23:07

→ catsondbs: 去年Moustakas拒絕QO結果最後簽的約連一半薪都拿不到 11/01 23:09

推 sunnydragon7: 超像QQ的 11/01 23:17

推 Cueto: QQ+1 還以為發生啥事 11/01 23:51

推 Smoltzy: 備註的(1)的失去第一輪選秀權是舊版的規則，新版改了 11/01 23:54

推 johanllino: 看成QQ 11/02 08:00

推 jeffctj: 2018 QQ 11/02 08:50

推 Dreality: QQ 11/02 09:57

推 Sechslee: QQ more 11/02 12:28