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Factor 1: It takes more pitches to complete a no-hitter than ever before.
This season, batters are making pitchers throw a record 3.93 pitches per
plate appearance, up from 3.89 last year, 3.83 in 2015 and 3.74 in the early
2000s. Outs take more pitches than hits, and strikeouts take more pitches
than other outs, and strikeouts are a bigger percentage of outs than they've
ever been. For that matter, walks (which take the most pitches of all) are
much more common than they've been in any season since 2000.
原因一:
現在要完成一場無安打比賽，需要用比以往更多的球。這季的打者，讓投手在每個
打席的用球數，比起去年的3.89顆、2015年的3.83顆、2000年初的3.74顆，上升到
3.93顆。出局比安打需要更多的用球數，三振又比其他的出局方式需要更多的用球數，
比起以前，當今三振數佔了出局數的最大宗。而且，現在的保送（所有打席中，需要
最多的用球數）比2000年開始的任一年都還要來的普遍。
If we look at all the games in which a team threw nine innings and allowed no
hits or one hit, the number of pitches required to get the 27 outs has been
steadily rising. In the 1990s, the median pitch count in these games was 114.
In the 2000s, it was 115, in the first half of this decade it was 117, and in
2016-2017 it was 120. This year, the median is 125 pitches. Most of those are
one-hitters, so knock off three or four pitches from those averages to
reflect one fewer batter, but the rise is real.
如果我們檢視歷年來，當一隻球隊投出九局無安打或一安打的所有比賽，要抓下27個
出局數所用的球數，正在穩定的逐年提高中。在1990年，這類型的比賽用球數的中位數是
114球。到了2000年，已經變成115球。在2011到2015年，則是117球，16到17年則是變成
120球。至於今年，已經來到125球。這些比賽大部分都是一安打的比賽，所以從先前
提到的用球數中位數減去3或4球後，來作為無安打比賽所需要的用球數（因為一個打數
的用球數，大概是3或4球差不多）。用球數真的正在逐年提高中。
Factor 2: The occurrences of 120-pitch starts have gotten really rare. We all
know that teams are more sensitive about pitch counts, and that on average
pitchers get pulled from games earlier than ever. But it's not just on
average: On the extremes, in the very best starts, teams are far less likely
to let a pitcher go deep. Last season, 95 percent of starters were pulled at
110 pitches or fewer. Just seven years ago, the 95th percentile pitch count
was 117, and in 2000 it was 124 -- plenty of pitches to complete the typical
no-hitter. If, on average, it'll take 120 pitches these days to throw a
no-hitter, then few pitchers would be allowed to go that far:Of course, managers
always have given their pitchers longer leashes when history is on the line,
so this wouldn't be a problem. What is a problem is ...
原因二：
會投到120球的先發已經變得很稀有了。我們都知道球隊對於用球數是非常敏感的，而且
比起以前，普通等級的先發常常更早就被換下場。但這情況不也只是發生在普通等級的
先發身上，那些的厲害的先發,即使該場投的很出色，球隊也不太願意讓他們投太多局。
在上一季中，95%的先發只投了110球以下就被換下場。回到七年前時，95%的先發被換
下場時的用球數則是117球，而在2000年，則是典型的用來完成一場無安打比賽所需的
124球呢！如果近幾年需要平均120球來完成一場無安打比賽，那只會有少數
的先發會被允許投到這麼多球。當然，如果正要寫下歷史的話，教練對於先發會比較
睜一隻眼閉一隻眼，所以用球數不會是個問題，真的的問題是....
Factor 3: Managers aren't extending those leashes when history is on the line
anymore. Last year, five pitchers were pulled with a no-hitter intact in the
fifth inning or later. (Manaea was one of them -- he'd thrown 98 pitches in
five hitless innings on April 15.) There were six pitchers pulled from no-hit
bids in each of 2015 and 2016, and five in 2014. Such starts -- no hits,
no complete game -- have been three times as common since 2014 as they were
in the 25 years prior. There already have been three this year.
原因三：
教練不再對於正在寫下歷史的先發睜一隻眼閉一隻眼。去年有五位投出無安打的先發,
在五局或五局後被換下場。(Manaea是這五位其中一位，在2017/4/15用98球投出5局的
無安打比賽)在2015和2016年分別有六位先發從無安打比賽中被換下場，2014年則是五位，
這些無安打或是完全比賽，從2014年開始出現的次數，已經是先前25年的3倍。今年就
已經出現三場了！
This is new. Since 2010, four of the six highest pitch counts have come in
no-hitters, and the other two were no-hitters broken up with two outs in the
ninth inning. No pitcher in that time has thrown more than 133 pitches in a
"normal" start, but managers have let pitchers throw 149, 148, 137 and 134
when a no-hitter was on the line. That's, frequently, what it takes. It seems
silly to say "Can you imagine a manager letting a pitcher go 140 pitches to
chase a no-hitter today?" After all, yes, it happened just five years ago.
But can you? I can't. Can you even imagine it today?
這是個新的局面！從2010年開始，前六高用球數比賽之中，有四場是來自無安打比賽,
另外兩場則是在8.2出局後被打安打的比賽。在當時，沒有投手會在所謂"正常"先發中，
投超過133球，但教練卻允許投手在即將要投出無安打比賽時，投149, 148, 137和
134球。事情就真的如此頻繁的發生了。這樣說似乎看起來很蠢“你有辦法想像在現今，
會有教練讓投手投超過140球就只為了追求無安打比賽嗎？”歸根究底來說,應該是可以,
因為這在五年前是真的發生過。但你真的有辦法想像嗎？至少我是無法。你有辦法想像
這件事發生在現今這年代嗎？
It's helpful to consider what happened when Corey Kluber was pitching on
May 13, 2015. Kluber completed the eighth inning having thrown 113 pitches
and struck out 18 batters. Nobody has ever struck out 21 batters in a
nine-inning game, and Kluber could have done it by striking out the side in
the ninth. It would have pushed him up to around 130 pitches, to be sure,
but he could have done something nobody had ever done, or matched something
-- 20 K's -- only four pitchers have done.
這有助於思考Corey Kluber在2015.5.13所發生的事情。Kluber用113球完投8局並三振
18次。先前從來沒有投手能在9局三振21位打者，但是Kluber可能在第九局完成這件事。
可以確定的是，這會讓他的投球數逼近130球，但這也會讓他完成先前無人做過的事，
或者跟先前有些人完成過的事情一樣-單場20個三振，歷史上只有4位投手完成過。
But his manager, Terry Francona, pulled him. Pitchers don't get a long leash
to chase 21 strikeouts. It's just not the culture. They've always gotten a
long leash to chase a no-hitter, but Kluber had allowed one hit, so Francona
pulled him.
但是粉柯南把Kluber換下來了。投手們沒辦法為了追求21次三振而得到較寬鬆的投球
限制。這不只是因為棒球界的風氣。投手們總是能因為無安打而得到較寬鬆的投球限制，
但是Kluber當時已經被打一支安打了，所以粉柯南就把他換下來了。
We're getting closer to a no-long-leash culture for no-hitters. We're not
there all the way -- Ross was allowed to throw 127 pitches Friday, 11 more
than anybody else has thrown in a start this year -- but the no-hit bid is
losing its power. Rich Hill was pulled from a perfect game bid last year,
the first time that had ever happened. Between youth and recent injuries,
almost every pitcher has some reason for his manager to be protective of him
these days.
我們正走向不會因為無安打比賽的關係，而投手能得到較寬鬆投球限制的風氣。但我們
也不全然如此；像是教士隊的Tyson Ross在星期五（補注：美國時間2018/04/20的
教士作客響尾蛇的比賽）已經投了127球，比這季其他的先發投手中，最多的投球數都
還多11球；同時無安打比賽正在喪失其吸引力。道奇隊的Rich Hill在2016年(補注：
原文是寫last year，但我查了應該是2016/9/11 @MIA的比賽)的完全比賽中被換下來，
這次有史以來第一次發生的情況。在考量到年紀和傷勢的因素，近幾年每位投手的教練
總是有任意的理由來保護他們的投手。
The bottom line is that it used to take 115 pitches to throw a typical
no-hitter; now it takes 120, and that number is going up. It used to be
that pitchers could be pushed to 120 pitches semi-regularly; now they almost
never go past 110, and that number is going down. For now, the math juuuuuuust
holds together, and we still get plenty of no-hitters, like Manaea's
108-pitch effort. But "going up" and "going down" are the key clauses there.
When no-hitters start to go, they could go quickly, especially as letting
pitchers throw extra pitches for the pursuit becomes the exception rather
than the rule.
曾經，要投出典型的無安打比賽需要的115球是最低標準。但是現在，則需要120球，
而且還在持續增加中。以前在正規賽季中，投手是可能被允許投到120球，但現在幾乎
不曾超過110球，而這個數字也在持續下降中。即使先前提過的數字正在發生，然而
我們還是有著一堆無安打比賽。像是Manaea的108球無安打比賽。但是，投出無安打
需要更多的球數以及投手被允許更少的球數，正扮演著重要的準則。當有無安打比賽
正要開始時，上述的準則會實行得更快，特別是當今要讓投手為了無安打比賽投更多
球數的這種狀況，比起視之為普遍情況來說，更像是種例外情況。
You'll definitely get to see some more no-hitters. Somebody will probably
throw one tonight. Enjoy it. Enjoy all of them. Because in five or 10 years,
my guess is there are going to be a lot of combined no-hitters, but if a
pitcher wants to throw one all by himself, it won't be enough not to allow
any hits. He'll quite possibly have to be perfect. And those are really rare.
你絕對會看到更多的無安打比賽。今晚就有可能投出一場呢！好好享受無安打比賽吧。
因為根據我的猜測，在未來的五或十年後，將會有更多多名投手合力投出的無安打比賽，
如果有投手想要靠自己一個人來完成無安打比賽的話，不被打任何安打是遠遠不夠的。
他即將投出的非常可能是一場完全比賽。然而這些完全比賽是真的真的很少。
原文網址：
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23291116/no-hitters-sean-manaea-become
-rarer-rarer
----------------------
因為看原Po後半段有些翻譯的不是很順，就想試著翻翻看，然後就想乾脆全部翻完好了
有些地方翻得總不是很順，如果有可以翻得更好的部分，還請版友指點。
--
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推 shinhan1014: 辛苦了 翻得很好 04/25 19:41
推 atib: 翻得很好了啊 給推 04/25 19:51
推 green841112: 推個 厲害 04/25 20:19
推 e920528: 推推 翻得蠻好的 04/25 21:12
推 Asucks: 推翻譯 04/25 21:41
推 DarthVader: 想當年漢典是不是為了無安打比賽投了140幾球 04/25 22:13
→ harrishu: 還有當時還在光芒的Edwin Jackson啊 我記得149球XD 04/25 23:04
推 stpmouse: 神左的完全比賽也噴了一百三四十球 才剛大病初癒就 04/25 23:38
→ stpmouse: 這樣操 雖然成為大都會隊史第一次 但那場之後他 04/25 23:38
→ stpmouse: 就回不去了 04/25 23:38
推 stpmouse: 之後教練說他很掙扎要不要換投 雖然也不一定是因為 04/25 23:40
→ stpmouse: 那場而終結職業生涯 只是這種巧合還是會讓人聯想 04/25 23:40