看板MLB
標題：Brandon Belt Rightly Resists the Revolution
來源：Fangraphs
網址：
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brandon-belt-rightly-resists-the-revolution/
On Wednesday night, Brandon Belt came to the plate six times. He drew four wal
ks, struck out once, and put one ball in play, a single in the 11th that drove
in a run. Of course, the combination of all those walks and the relative lack
of homers sometimes leads to spurious criticismsnot unlike those leveled at J
oey Votto. While most understand that Votto is a great hitter and many underst
and that what Belt does is good, Belt’s reputation likely suffers more than V
otto’s for a few reasons.
1 He’s not as good as Joey Votto.
2 He hits relatively few homers for a first baseman.
As to that first point, there’s no shame in failing to rival Joey Votto. As t
o the second, it really is hard to overstate the effects of Belt’s home park.
Despite what Barry Bonds might have led everyone to believe, it’s incredibly
difficult to hit homers in San Francisco. Despite what Barry Bonds might have
led everyone to believe, it’s even more incredibly difficult for lefties to h
omer there.
週三晚上，Belt站上了打擊區六次，選到了四次保送、被三振一次、並把球打進場一次—
那是一支在十一局、帶有打點的一壘安打。。當然，Belt這種追求保送和相對少打全壘打
的組合為他招致了錯誤的批評，而不像Joey Votto那樣。大多人都知道Votto是一個偉大的
打者，而只有一部分的人理解Belt做得很棒了；Belt的形象可能受到兩個因素影響：
1.他沒有Joey Votto那麼好
2.就一壘手來說，他的全壘打相對較少
從第一點來看，比不上Votto是沒有什麼好羞愧的，至於第二點，很難不去強調巨人主場
的效應；儘管有BB爺的例子擺在那裡，在巨人主場就是很難打全壘打；同樣的，儘管BB爺
做過了，但在巨人球場左打就是更難打全壘打。
Brandon Belt isn’t without power. He has posted ISOs well above league averag
e throughout his career. Since the beginning of 2015, his .226 ISO on the road
is 23rd best in baseball among the 160 players who’ve recorded at least 500
away plate appearances. He’s within 10 points of Joey Votto; he’s right behi
nd Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, and Daniel Murphy; and he’s just ahead of Mi
guel Cabrera and Jose Bautista. In 580 away plate appearances since the beginn
ing of 2015 — roughly a season’s worth of playing time- – Belt has 28 home
runs, having hit them at a greater rate than Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt.
His numbers are good in high-leverage and low-leverage situations. He’s good
with runners on and the bases empty. He’s consistent, too, as the chart show
ing his 100-game rolling ISO shows
Belt不是沒有力量，他的生涯純長打率是優於平均的。自從15年開始，他的客場ISO在160
名至少有500個客場打席的球員中排23名；他跟Votto的差距在十個百分點內、僅僅落後給
Dozier、大奶嬸和山羊，還贏過胖卡布跟包大爺。在15年後約580個客場打席中（大約就是
一個球季的份量了），Belt轟了28次，出牆的頻率比老大跟Goldy還高。他的數據在不同
的關鍵程度（leverage）、壘上有沒有人時都很棒。他的表現也很穩定，如圖：
http://goo.gl/iUGaik
He’s also never hit more than 18 homers in a season and doesn’t seem likely
to do so this year. In addition, look at Belt’s ISO compared to first basemen
as a whole the last few seasons.
Belt’s power figures have remained roughly the same, even as the league aroun
d him has boosted its power. Belt’s overall offensive line has remained just
as good relative to the rest of the league, however, thanks to an increase in
walks. There has been much theorizing about the increase in offense over the l
ast few years. One of the more prominent theories concerns the effects of ever
higher launch angles, as hitters try to boost their power numbers by hitting
the ball in the air more often.
他也從來沒有在一個球季中打超過十八支全壘打，今年也看起來不會；此外，比較一下他
跟其他一壘手在這幾年的ISO：14年Belt ISO .206，其他人 .170、15年Belt .197，其他
人 .192、16年Belt .199，其他人 .194、今年Belt .210、其他人 .208。即使聯盟其他
人的力量都在提升，Belt的力量還是維持大致相同；而由於增加的保送，Belt總體攻擊面
的表現還是優於平均的。近年來關於聯盟攻擊表現的提升有很多推論，其中最顯著的理論
是『飛球革命』：越來越多球員想要把球打向空中，換取更好的打擊表現。
Would that work for Belt? Probably not, actually. Not because he would lose so
mething else as a hitter, but because it wouldn’t necessarily help him in San
Francisco. Belt actually did hit more fly balls last season; his power number
s barely moved, though. As a lefty hitter hitting in a park that suppresses po
wer — particularly for left-handed hitters — it’s not really clear that max
imizing launch angle would provide Belt with much benefit.
It’s tough to show exactly how much worse it is for lefties to hit in San Fra
ncisco than in other parks, but it is probably best to start with park factor.
The graph below shows the park factor for home runs by left-handed hitters. Th
e higher the number, the easier it is to hit them out of the ballpark.
這樣做對Belt有用嗎？大概不會。不是因為它可能會喪失打擊率之類的東西，而是這未必
能幫助在舊金山的Belt。他去年的確打了更多飛球，但他的成績並沒有多少的提升。身為
一個主場不利長打（左打尤甚）的左打球員，提高擊球角度對Belt的助益是有待商榷的。
仔細的檢視左打在AT&T跟其他球場的擊球難度是很困難的，不過我們可以從球場因素（Pa
rk Factor）開始：
http://goo.gl/AFi87j
San Francisco is last by quite a bit. It’s a good park for triples, but those
don’t really happen often enough to make a huge difference. And it’s still
in the bottom third for doubles.
Going beyond park factor, we can see just how this problem plays out using Sta
tcast. Baseball Savant now carries xwOBA as part of the available metrics. xwO
BA utilizes exit velocity and launch angle to determine what the wOBA on any g
iven play likely would have been. We can isolate by left-handed hitters and ve
nue to get a better sense of what happens when lefties hit the ball in each pa
rk
For this search, we will look at Barrels — that is, batted balls with the sor
t of launch angle and exit velocity that typically produces a batting average
of at least .500 and slugging percentage of at least 1.500. Since the beginnin
g of 2015, every park has seen around 200 barreled balls from left-handed batt
ers. The average wOBA on these balls is 1.411 and the expected wOBA on these b
alls is 71 points lower, so across the league, lefties generally exceed their
expected wOBA when they barrel a ball.
巨人在名單上落後很多。AT&T很適合三壘安打沒錯，但是三壘安打造成不了什麼影響，因
為他很難打；在二壘安打方面，巨人仍然在倒數三名。除了球場因素外，我們也可以用St
atcast來檢視AT&T的問題：Baseball Savant現在有了新數據—xwOBA。xwOBA利用球離開
球棒的速度跟擊球仰角來決定一個play應該有的wOBA。而我們可以將左打者獨立出來並以
此得到左打者在各個球場應有的擊球狀況。
於是我們應用Barrels這個Statcast的新數據—Barrels是指將球以特定的仰角和速度擊出
（就是打得很好的球），Barrels通常會產出約.500的打擊率和至少1.500的長打率。自從
2015球季以來，聯盟各個球場都至少產出200個由左打者擊出的Barrels，這些球的平均wO
BA是1.411，但他們的預期wOBA則是少了71個百分點，所以綜觀整個聯盟，左打者在擊出B
arrels時的wOBA大致是超過預期的。下圖顯示了預期wOBA和真實wOBA的差異：
http://goo.gl/r9NlO9
In the smaller parks in Milwaukee and Cincinnati, the thin air of Colorado, an
d the notoriously short right field of Yankee Stadium, lefty hitters outperfor
m their expected wOBA. Detroit is an average park for left-handers hitting hom
ers, but is considerably more difficult for doubles. Kansas City is a hard par
k in which to homer, and the club’s defense might play a role there, as well.
San Francisco is one of just three parks where barreled balls produce consider
ably worse results for lefties compared to the rest of baseball. The disparit
y is there for Giants hitters and their opponents.
在比較小的球場像密爾瓦基或大美國球場、或著是丹佛的山上、洋基的短右外野，左打者
往往有著較好的表現。老虎的美國聯信球場較為平均，但是很難擊出二壘安打、堪薩斯的
主場很難轟，他們的外野防守當然也有參一腳。巨人隊則是三個左打Barrels的產能低於
預期的球場之一，在這裡，不論主客都難受。
To provide another perspective on the data above — and remove defense from th
e equation entirely — we can take all of the barreled balls by park and look
at the percentage of those batted balls that go for homers. League average is
55% for left-handed batters.
http://goo.gl/Vh61qp
It’s hard for lefties to hit homers in San Francisco. When a hitter barrels a
ball in Yankee Stadium or Dodger Stadium, it goes out of the park two out of
every three times. When it happens in San Francisco, it’s a homer roughly hal
f as often. This is true both for the Giants and their opponents. Brandon Belt
doesn’t hit a lot of homers because San Francisco doesn’t let him. It doesn
’t allow any lefty — Barry Bonds excluded — to hit a lot of homers.
為了提供不同的觀點，接下來我們將球隊守備因素排除等式之外，逐個球場來看Barrels
成為全壘打的機率：先聲明，聯盟的平均是55%。
而在舊金山，左打者是非常難擊出全壘打的；在洋基或道奇球場，三分之二的球會出牆；
在AT&T，則是他們的一半，主客隊皆然。Belt打不出全壘打不是因為AT&T不讓他打，而是
因為AT&T不讓任何左打扛出牆，當然BB爺除外。
Brandon Belt is a good hitter with power. His walks have allowed him to keep p
ace with the rest of the league offensively, as increasing his power numbers w
ould likely be a fool’s errand. Brandon Belt doesn’t hit for a high average
or hit a lot of homers. He’s not fast on the bases. He doesn’t need to do an
y of that, however, to be very good. He walks a lot and he hits for power, eve
n if the ball doesn’t leave the yard. That’s all he needs to do to be one of
the top-25 hitters in baseball.
Belt是一名有力量的好打者，他的保送數讓他得以跟進聯盟攻擊上升的腳步，追求全壘打
對他來說不是最好的選擇。Belt不必追求高打擊率或大量長打、他在壘間的速度也一般般
，但他不必追求上述的成績也能成為好球員，他只要選好保送並全力打擊，就算球沒有飛
出牆，也足夠讓他成為聯盟前25名的好打者了。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
心得：第一次翻譯外電，若有文意不清或錯誤的還煩請多指教。這篇外電是在Fangraphs
上看到的，剛好是在說我巨自己養的Belt。其中關於飛球革命的觀點也很有趣，如果球場
不好打就不要嘗試把球全都打高。這樣看來，巨人的打者都還蠻聰明的，（其實也是逼不
得已der）短槍的打法能避免掉球場的劣勢，只是今年...唉...
--
※ 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.112.25.99※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1494299490.A.56A.html
推 Edison1174: 跟棒子爺比 這標準霹靂無敵爆炸高 05/09 11:25
推 jww: 看完只想到一件事，如果BB爺生涯是在NYY全壘打會不會破千... 05/09 11:27
推 Roshiel: BB爺表示:有很難打HR?? 05/09 11:27
推 Sechslee: BB爺真的非人類 05/09 11:33
推 jackytao: 推~~ 05/09 11:35
推 ache0128: 我巨本季深受傷兵所苦啊 05/09 11:36
推 oadas: BB/不是BB的左打者 單純二分法 05/09 11:50
推 Keyshawn: 推三樓 05/09 11:54
推 acd51874: 巨人球場算極端例子了，球員不得不開發出適合主場的打法 05/09 12:08
推 scheiss: 看完更佩服棒子爺是怎麼回事 05/09 12:08
推 acd51874: 現在投手跟野手守備能力都越來越強，光是打進場就不容 05/09 12:11
→ acd51874: 易了，還要挑戰日益強大的手套，安打串連越來越難，BB 05/09 12:11
→ acd51874: 跟Long ball變成打者顯學也就很正常。講了這麼多，我只 05/09 12:11
→ acd51874: 是不太喜歡“飛球革命”這種說法XD(不是針對原Po ) 05/09 12:12
推 wsx1678904: 前幾天fg還有一篇sinker已死的文 05/09 12:16
推 gettowork83: 推大王 05/09 12:16
→ wsx1678904: 使用率越來越低 低球也越來越容易被狙擊 05/09 12:16
→ ShaShoukun: 主因應該還是投手進步幅度比打者多，在今日有一堆體能 05/09 12:22
→ ShaShoukun: 怪物在守備打進場形成打安打的機率還是跟幾年前差不多 05/09 12:22
推 earnformoney: 推翻譯 05/09 12:25
推 JeremyKSKGA: 推Brandon Belt 05/09 12:43
推 vigilante666: 洋基：蛤？什麼你剛剛說左打全壘打嗎? 05/09 12:45
推 kenkenken31: 還記得巨人在季後賽用一堆滾安棒打小史QQ 05/09 12:48
推 KerFel: 不要用個案去救援XDDD 05/09 12:49
推 lecl: 巨人球場的右外野比較短 對於拉打型的左打不是更利於打全壘 05/09 12:57
→ lecl: 打嗎? 05/09 12:57
推 TWeng: 推長頸鹿 05/09 13:00
推 david319: 推 05/09 13:10
推 eon4: 看他的生涯真的有一種媳婦熬成婆的感覺 05/09 13:16
推 acd51874: 巨人右外野牆高，而且常吹海風回場內 05/09 13:21
推 catsondbs: 右外野有吹回來的海風+高牆 05/09 13:24
推 kuyung: 最被低估的球員之一 這季傷兵一堆有時會客串LF 05/09 13:43
→ kuyung: 問題是他守LF不出色 連帶還會影響打擊 05/09 13:43
→ kuyung: 有時一壘還會被波西卡住 幫QQ 05/09 13:44
推 Asucks: 推翻譯 05/09 13:48
推 lwifbf: A-Gon好像也有這種狀況 他主場好像會刻意打平 不追求HR 05/09 14:24
推 nuggets0916: 推 巨人選手都有個滿沉穩的氣質 05/09 14:30
推 acd51874: sinker已死那篇剛看完，有夠廢 05/09 14:43
推 ylrafale: 放Belt上去守LF，即使守備不出色，也好過放自殺棒上去了 05/09 15:17
推 lecl: 說真的巨人右外野的牆不算很高 但假如海風會吹回來的話 那影 05/09 15:21
→ lecl: 響真的不小了 05/09 15:21
推 wsx1678904: 我也覺得頗廢XD 只是使用率越來越低是真的 05/09 15:35
推 acd51874: 頂多說因為三振效果比較好，所以投手開始追求三振而已 05/09 16:12
→ acd51874: 草尼馬的糞 標題 05/09 16:13
推 ERWILSON: AT&T啟用以來,BB爺AB/HR:主1407/160=8.8,客1464/157=9.3 05/09 16:20
推 changeagle: At&T公園傍晚都會有海風 濕氣重 對打者真的不利 05/09 16:28
推 changeagle: 我巨打者幾乎是長槍 很少有砲 BB爺那是極端案例 05/09 16:30
推 Muting46: 推 05/09 17:23
推 atib: 大概是棒子爺在AT&T轟到大家以為在這邊轟很簡單 05/09 19:45
推 changeagle: BB爺以前一堆轟出海的真的神扯 05/09 20:26
推 ph49: bb如果在NYY就千轟了吧 05/09 22:37
推 doraemon8709: 推我巨 05/11 12:13
推 qap4567: belt真的很黏 05/11 13:03
推 caresomes: bonds不是正常人，不能用他的標準來看別人… 05/11 21:43
推 newest: BB爺:HR有很難打嗎?? 05/14 02:56