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I would have loved to see the American League MVP come down to a tie between
Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout of the Angels, because they each did
their jobs extraordinarily well – and because I went back and forth numerous
times about this vote.
In the end, I settled on Cabrera, barely. I based that on his stronger
performance down the stretch, helping the Tigers into the playoffs. Yes, Trout
’s Angels won more games than Detroit, and no, Trout shouldn’t be penalized
for playing in a stronger division, but at the same time, Cabrera shouldn’t
be dinged for playing in a weaker one.
最終 Cabrera在我心中稍稍勝出 依據的理由是他球季後段較好的表現和季後賽
Trout是不應該應為分區強而被懲罰 但Cabrera也不應該應為分區弱而被排斥
The central argument over the BBWAA’s MVP awards always has been this:
Should the award go to the best player? Or to the most valuable player,
whatever that means? It creates a fun debate, made all the more interesting
in recent years with the rise of advanced metrics. I have great respect for
the sabermetricians, and I have a working grasp of most of the more common
advanced metrics. I believe they are an excellent tool for player evaluation,
and I did take them into account. By those measures, Mike Trout had an
off-the-charts season, a historic season, and I certainly will not argue that
Cabrera is the better all-around player. Trout is an astonishingly great
all-around player, the “best” player, if you will.
我相信進階數據是很好的工具 由它們的評估 Trout有歷史級的球季 而我並不會爭論
Cabrera是不是比較好的球員 Trout是全能性的 "最好"的 可以這麼說
Postseason, though, is the ultimate goal for every team. We more “traditional
” baseball journalists do tend to weigh postseason appearances highly when
it comes to the MVP because, really, what else is value for? Cabrera got his
team to the playoffs. Trout did not. There are lots of variables involved, I
realize that, many of them out of each player’s control, but this was the
area that made just the slimmest bits of difference for me: In August,
Cabrera had an on-base percentage of .429 and an OPS of 1.092 and September
.395 and 1.071. Trout’s August numbers: .366 and .866 and September: .400
and .900.
我們"傳統"記者 評判MVP時比較看重季後賽 當然 進季後賽有很多變數存在
但是看看八九月兩人的表現吧
Many of the stats brigade argue that looking at arbitrary dates, say from
Aug. 1 on, isn’t valid, and many note that games in June and July – when
Trout was putting up absurd numbers – count the same as those final two
months. I believe, and this is just my own opinion, that the pennant race
does mean something extra. I absolutely expect that Mike Trout will have some
extraordinary stretch-run performances in his career. This year, that guy was
Cabrera.
數據派可能會爭論認為比賽是場場等值 但在我看來 後段比賽價值更高
我相信以後Trout也會有帶進季後賽的表現 不過 今年的那個人是Cabrera
Now, along with looking at all the measures possible, including WAR (which
this year probably will reflect more in my votes for the 3-10 places), I also
talked to lots of people in the game: scouts, execs, players. I talked to
baseball-crazed friends, just about anyone who might have an interesting
take, and this year everyone does. My husband, Dan Brown of the San Jose
Mercury News, is a BBWAA member but did not have an AL MVP vote; he would
have voted for Trout, though, as he indicated in the paper on Sunday. So even
our household is split.
我老公表示他會投給Trout 他也是BBWAA成員但沒有投票權
可見連在家庭裡每個人的意見都不一致
Every player I spoke to, and I talked to at least a dozen A’s and other AL
players, leaned toward Cabrera – except for one: Brandon McCarthy, the A’s
starter and a man with such a deep knowledge of advanced metrics, he has used
them to redefine his career. McCarthy is among the smartest, if not the
smartest, athlete I’ve covered in 24 years in the business, and I respect
his opinion enormously when it comes to sabermetrics. He doesn’t just
understand them, he puts them into actual practice.
大部分我訪問的球員都會投給Cabrera 除了Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy是我採訪過的球員中最聰明的一個
他不只了解進階數據 他還利用數據改進他的生涯
McCarthy argued vehemently for Trout, and he said he tried to find every
possible reason to vote for Cabrera as an intellectual exercise, but he just
couldn’t do rationalize it. Trout’s superiority in two major categories,
defense and baserunning, made this a clear choice for McCarthy. He described
Cabrera as “unreal” at hitting – and Trout as “unreal at all three.”
McCarthy說他想找Cabrera勝過Trout的理由 但他找不到
Trout在跑壘和防守大勝 讓他成為McCarthy明顯的選擇
Cabrera的打擊很驚人 但Trout在三方面都很驚人
When I made that (somewhat cliched by now) argument that Cabrera had helped
his team by moving to third base in order for the Tigers to sign Prince
Fielder – something which I still don’t think can be discounted entirely –
McCarthy responded that Cabrera would have helped the team more by DHing and
allowing a better defensive player to handle third. I don’t agree, based on
the rest of their personnel, but it’s a fair point.
當我提出Cabrera無私移防三壘 - 我覺得這是不能被反駁的理由 - McCarthy回應說
Cabrera打DH然後讓防守好的人站三壘隊球隊更有幫助
我不同意 但這是不錯的看法
McCarthy and I discussed this vote several times, including after my ballot
was completed, and he feels very strongly about it. I admire that, and I love
the passion that has driven the debate on both sides. Isn’t this what makes
sports great? I hope we can all agree that this isn’t a year in which
negativity should reign – both of these men were at the peak of their
profession. That should be applauded.
I considered all sides, absolutely, and at times, I was convinced I’d vote
for Trout, only to swing back. I understand the push for Trout and the flaws
in the Cabrera argument, especially when it comes to defense and baserunning.
But Cabrera got the job done at crunch time, and that, in the end, made just
the slimmest of differences to me.
我有想過投給Trout 特別是考慮防守和跑壘 但Cabrera在關鍵時刻有關鍵發揮
而這最後讓我決定投給Cabrera
--
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
※ 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1353072988.A.FAC.html
推 krajicek:所以多數球員也是傳統派 11/16 21:38
推 johnjohn1330:他說McCarthy是採訪的球員最聰明的一個 結果他投票 11/16 21:40
推 tanaka0826:McCarthy:我以後也要當GM 11/16 21:41
→ johnjohn1330:投給McCarthy想投的那個的對面= = 11/16 21:41
推 yankeefat:Trout無法幫球隊打進季後賽 但胖卡可以 11/16 21:43
推 DerekJeter02:這兩個有什麼衝突嗎...不懂樓上的邏輯 11/16 21:43
→ DerekJeter02:我是說2樓 11/16 21:44
→ borriss:Trout也說自己不懂war 11/16 21:53
→ SergeIbaka9:講最白最直觀 投票的人真的都知道WAR是什麼東西嗎-.- 11/16 21:56
推 Sechslee:多數球員是傳統派很正常吧? 11/16 21:56
→ abc12812:記者怎麼沒問問Scherzer的看法? 他也是數據派的 11/16 21:58
推 noahlin:胖卡有季後賽鱒魚沒有其實就沒太大懸念了 11/16 21:59
→ noahlin:如果今天兩人同進退就真的有得吵 11/16 21:59
推 SatoTakuma:如果是總冠軍之後才投... 11/16 22:01
推 Sparksfly:看要不要重聘一堆瞭進階數據的人來投票囉～ 11/16 22:03
推 krizarlid:少了Trout 天使有機會跟水手搶美西爐主勒 11/16 22:05
→ SergeIbaka9:這種如果如果的推論沒什麼意義吧... 11/16 22:09
推 stja:季後賽真的差很大 而且老虎還撐到最後一輪 11/16 22:11
→ pickoff:天使這種陣容搶爐主會被笑死...季初多少人看好 11/16 22:25
推 msn12345679:Trout無法幫球隊進季後賽? 被投手敗掉的好嗎 11/16 22:37
→ msn12345679:講得好像Trout毫無建樹一樣 11/16 22:37
→ msn12345679:老虎能進季後賽也不全是米糕的功勞啦 11/16 22:38
→ msn12345679:要這樣說怎麼不提米糕烙賽烙掉WS 11/16 22:39
→ borriss:普人版6月到11月一共四篇文 大家都忘掉了 11/16 22:39
→ Sparksfly:總版熱烈很多 11/16 22:42
推 gonzalez0528:給msn 請告訴我哪一隊可以靠一個人進季後賽? 11/16 22:47
→ gonzalez0528:還有 票選在何時截止 您知道嗎? 關WS什麼事? 11/16 22:47
推 msn12345679:你應該問五樓那個 我可沒說哪隊可以靠一人進季後賽 11/16 22:48
推 yankeefat:只是從你們最愛的WAR下去看而已 11/16 22:49
推 Sparksfly:先別說五樓了 你知道何時截止票選嗎 11/16 22:53
→ msn12345679:跟選MVP無關啊 不爽某人把球隊勝敗都推到一人身上罷了 11/16 22:57
→ msn12345679:一直酸還要人別引戰 zz 11/16 22:58
推 jackylfc:好像老虎只靠卡布就能近季後賽啦 11/16 23:27
推 frank47147:結果季賽MVP 還是比較看重季後賽 11/16 23:42
推 OoyaoO:這邊的季後賽的意思指的是有沒有進 不是季後賽的表現如何 11/16 23:45
推 shawncarter:這裡的重點是八月九月兩個人一個upside一個downside 11/17 00:14
推 JessicaA1ba:講說米糕讓出三壘給防守更好著者這種蠢話 11/17 01:04
推 JessicaA1ba:讓出DH給強打者更幫助球隊。當老爹不重要嗎？ 11/17 01:06
推 JessicaA1ba:這位M兄以為他獨排眾議多有料咧 科科 11/17 01:09
推 okinawa8:今年老虎DH打最多的楊大猛OPS+才89是能多有貢獻 11/17 01:23
→ okinawa8:等老虎有老爹你再來說吧 科科 11/17 01:23
推 JessicaA1ba:等你知道楊大猛的季後賽HR有多關鍵再來說吧 科比 11/17 03:01
推 okinawa8:拿季後賽來講季賽還真趣味咧 06田口壯季後超猛你要不要天 11/17 04:26
→ okinawa8:天放他上去? 11/17 04:26
推 live4132:幫球隊進季後賽又不是只靠一個人...好隊友更重要好嗎 11/17 05:32
→ live4132:這理由真是有夠無言的= = 11/17 05:34
推 colin79813:給強打公務員一個MVP過份嘛?? 11/17 10:35
推 lwei781:又不是天天 SHO 的 SP...... 11/17 11:35
推 JessicaA1ba:拿田口比楊大猛還真是好笑 11/17 14:23
推 JessicaA1ba:魚慘敗MVP就擔心得要命真是有趣 11/17 14:26