2010 Five questions: Texas Rangers

== Five questions: Texas Rangers == 德州遊騎兵 2010 五大問 This could be the year the Rangers finally get over the hump. Of course, prognosticators have been saying something very similar ever since 2004, when Buck Showalter led a suddenly A-Rod-less Rangers team to an 89-73 record with a lineup that featured a quartet of under-30 infielders who were all capable of driving in 100 runs and hitting 30 homers. Rather than being the beginning of something special, though, it turned out to be more just more of the same. The Rangers never developed any pitching to go along with the offensive core, first baseman Mark Teixeira and second baseman Alfonso Soriano were eventually traded, the league figured out Hank Blalock and Showalter was shown the door. 今年可能是遊騎兵終於要擺脫低潮大躍進的一年。當然啦~ 這句話自從2004年後， 每年季初都被預言者拿出來說一次。2004那年，總教練Showalter帶領著少了A-Rod 的遊騎兵打下了89勝73負的成績。那時的遊騎兵內野是四個不到30歲，卻都有打出 單季30轟+100打點實力的重砲部隊(詳見註1.)。 超強的打擊--這就是遊騎兵給人的印象。然而球團這幾年所做的，卻只是讓這印象 越來越深刻，卻沒有為這支以強悍打擊為核心的隊伍提升他們相對孱弱的投手陣容。 Teixeira和Soriano都被交易走了，Blalock的打擊也被看破手腳，Showalter則被 球團掃地出門了。 It wasn't until last year that the Rangers would be back over the .500 mark at the end of a season. Once again, the Rangers are loaded with promise. Michael Young is the only significant player left over from that 2004 squad. Filling in the team around him is a group of players with seemingly endless talent, but with major questions marks. 遊騎兵並不是到了去年才有實力打出超過五成勝率的球季。 我再強調一次: 遊騎兵一直都是一支讓球迷充滿期待的球隊。雖然2004年那恐怖的 內野四人眾只剩下Michael Young還留在這裡，但現在圍繞著他的球員，似乎各個 都擁有無限大的天份，只是能不能在大聯盟戰場上證明出來，我們還得先打上問號。 1. Can the veterans stay healthy? 那些有經驗的球員們能保持健康嗎? Vladimir Guerrero and Rich Harden were unquestionably the biggest names to join the team in the offseason. If this were 2006, that would have been considered a coup. Instead, the Rangers get a version of Guerrero who will probably be relegated to DHing duties and a Harden who is practically guaranteed to miss at least a handful of starts. If the Rangers can get 500 plate appearances out of Guerrero, there's no reason to think he won't produce numbers any team would take from the DH spot: About 85 RBIs, maybe 20 homers and a batting average right around .300. Guerrero和Harden無疑是球隊季後補強所獲得的球員裡名氣最大的兩位。如果現在 是2006年，那這補強簡直是棒呆了! 可惜現在並不是2006年，遊騎兵得到的是DH版 的Guerrero，還有保證每年會因傷錯過至少五場比賽的Harden。 如果Guerrero打到500個打席以上，毫無疑問地，他能貢獻給遊騎兵的成績絕對能 跟任何一支隊伍的DH相提並論: 大概是20支全壘打、85分打點和三成左右的打擊率。 Harden, on the other hand, is much more volatile. At one time considered to have some of the best stuff in all of baseball, he's missed so much time that it seems pointless to even consider that anymore. Even when he's healthy, he's shown precious little ability to work late into games. Although he made 51 starts the past two years, he's averaged about 5.2 innings per outing. His move back to the American League doesn't promise to make his life any easier. Still, he strikes out better than 10 batters per nine innings pitched... which may be part of the reason he can't work deep into games. If the Rangers figure out how to coax 200 innings out of Harden, they may have finally found the ace they've been looking for. 至於Harden呢... 他的不確定性就更大了。他曾經被認為是全聯盟的投手裡，擁有 最棒的資質的投手之一，但他因傷錯過了太多的比賽，而難以讓人再次想起他曾經 擁有這麼好的資質。就算是在他健康的時候，你也很難看到他能在比賽中投到後段 局數。即使過去兩年他有51場的先發，他平均一場只能投到5.2局。重回美國聯盟 投球並不保證會讓他的日子更好過。當然啦~ 他的K功依舊犀利，平均每9局能投出 10次以上的三振，但這也可能是造成他(用球數過多)無法把投球局數拉長的原因。 如果遊騎兵能夠小心地使用Harden，讓他能投到200局以上的話，那遊騎兵將擁有 他們尋覓了多年的王牌投手。 Then there's Josh Hamilton. Amazingly, the soon-to-be 29-year-old is barely entering his fourth major league season. A year removed from what many thought was the beginning of a special career, the questions about Hamilton now surround his ability to stay on the field for entirely different reasons than those that plagued his minor league career. For the second time in three years, he played in just over half of his team's games. Of equal concern was the .160 drop in OPS from 2008-09. We have him projected at .808 this year, which seems conservative, but if he manages the nearly 550 plate appearances we project, his numbers should be fine. 接下來我們來談談Josh Hamilton... 喔~ 這真是太神奇了，傑克! 這個快滿29歲 的傢伙才僅僅正要開始他的第四個大聯盟球季而已。一年前，大家想到的通常是他 那特別的生涯起步。一年過去了，現在大家關心的是他是否有能力讓自己留在場上 (我是指保持健康之類的事)而不是他在小聯盟時期那些造成他離開球場的荒唐事。 這三年裡，他有兩年錯過了球隊一半以上的比賽。還有一件同樣值得我們注意的事， 就是他的OPS在2008到2009年下降了.160。我們預測他今年會打出OPS.808的成績， 這個預測似乎有些保守，但如果他能如同我們預測地打到550打席，他的成績應該 會是OK的。 2. Will the young guns fulfill their promise? 這些年輕投手們能符合期待嗎? Even if Harden does miraculously fulfill his promise, the Rangers will need at least one of their two young flamethrowers to emerge as stalwarts of the rotation. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz have been dazzling scouts for a couple years now and their continued development may dictate the Rangers' long-term future more than any other players. 就算Harden奇蹟似地達成球團的期待(像是先發30場或投滿200局之類的)，遊騎兵 仍需要他們的兩大火球少年(Holland和Feliz)至少有一個能長大，並且在先發輪值 中獨當一面。Holland和Feliz早就讓許多球探驚艷不已，他們的持續成長也將影響 遊騎兵球團對於球隊未來的長期規劃。 Holland flashed brilliance at points last season (a 10-strikeout, 8.2-inning gem on July 4 and a three-hit shutout two starts later were the standouts), but to call his rookie campaign uneven may be too kind. He finished with an ERA of 6.12 and worked more than six innings only four times in 21 starts. He allowed five or more runs on eight occasions, including a consecutive stretch of five such incidents. But, he's still just 23, left-handed and will be given every opportunity to rebound. Holland去年有過幾次亮眼的表現--像是國慶日8.2局投出10K，兩場先發後又投出 一場三安打完封。但是，如果說他的菜鳥年表現只是「表現不穩」還太仁慈了，他 最後繳出自責分率6.12的成績，21場先發裡只有4場投超過6局，有8場比賽失分在 5分以上，還發生過連續5場失分在5分以上這種鳥事。不過他才23歲又是左投，他 會獲得每一個可以讓他翻身的機會。 Feliz also flashed brilliance. In his case, though, his shortcomings were due to lack of playing time, as opposed to uneven performances. In just 31 major league innings—all out of the bullpen—Feliz struck out 39 and allowed just 24 baserunners. He's been a starter for most of his minor league career and will fight for a spot in the big league rotation. Feliz同樣表現傑出，投了31局(全都是後援出場)，K掉39個人，只讓24個打者上壘。 但這只是小樣本，我們也沒辦法藉此觀察他的穩定性。他在小聯盟大部分是以先發 身分出賽，而他也將競爭大聯盟的先發輪值位置。 3. What kind of production will they get up the middle? 年輕選手的成長會如何呢? Going through the middle of the diamond, there's much to like. Ian Kinsler has established himself as probably the second best offensive second baseman in baseball. Elvis Andrus played Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop. Julio Borbon is considered one of the top rookies in baseball. Even at catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden, so far a bit disappointing, have potential. 來~ 看看場上的這些小夥子，他們真是太可愛了。Ian Kinsler已經展現他的實力， 而且他可能是全聯盟攻擊第二強的二壘手(Utley: 嘿~)。Elvis Andrus在游擊區有 金手套級的守備，Julio Borbon被認為是最好的新秀之一。即使是目前讓我們有點 失望的兩位補手新秀Jarrod Saltalamacchia和Taylor Teagarden都有很好的潛力。 Unfortunately, each position has issues. Kinsler, for all his brilliance, has battled injuries his entire career. He played in 144 games last year —a career best—which is certainly a positive, but that's not exactly Cal Ripken, either. Andrus' glove will keep him in the lineup and his speed (33 steals) should help, but the Rangers would surely like to see an improvement on his OPS+ of 82. The same could be said for Borbon, who projects an anemic OPS of .687. The Rangers would love for one of their young catchers to seize the starting job. If past performance is any indication (they both project as sub-.700 OPS players), though, that could be more pick-your-poison than real battle. 可惜，每個位置都有他的問題。雖然Kinsler很棒，但他整個生涯都在跟傷痛搏鬥。 去年他打了144場比賽--已經是生涯最多--這是個好現象，但很顯然他不是像鐵人 Cal Ripken那種選手。Andrus光靠手套和腿就可以讓他穩站先發位置，但遊騎兵仍 期待他那低到只有82的OPS+能夠有所改善。同樣的問題也發生在Borbon身上，今年 他被預測僅能打出OPS.687這種貧弱的成績。遊騎兵希望他們的兩大捕手新秀其中 能有一人爭取到固定的先發位置，但如果參考過去的數據(兩人的OPS都不到.700)， 挑選先發捕手大概就像是「兩種死法選一種」一樣，毫無生機啊! 4. How will the ownership issue affect the product on the field? 球團經營權的問題會影響球員的場上表現嗎? A year ago, Major League Baseball had to step in and start covering paychecks. I won't go as far as saying that it affected the players' production, but it certainly curbed the team's ability to acquire talent for a stretch run. At least twice this offseason, the team's sale to a group headed by Nolan Ryan was supposedly finalized. As of this writing, the deal is once again in limbo as MLB is apparently unhappy with the cash-to-debt ratio. Getting this all figured out may not have a huge impact on how the team starts. You can bet it will start to weigh on players if it drags on too long. Last year, the team didn't acquire a single impact player for the stretch run. You certainly can't lay all the blame there, but the team limped to a 29-31 record after the July 31 deadline and finished well out of a playoff spot. If nothing else, new ownership should provide the impetus to end what has become a 10-year playoff drought. 一年前，為因應全球不景氣，大聯盟球隊也開始節約開支。我不會一言以蔽之地說 這樣會影響球員的表現，但這的確限制了球團簽下大約的能力。遊騎兵老闆想把球 隊賣給以Nolan Ryan為首的集團，而在休賽期間，這筆交易至少有兩次的機會可以 正式完成。然而在筆者寫這篇文章的時候，這筆交易依然在不上不下的狀態懸而未 決，因為大聯盟官方很明顯地不喜歡該交易收購款項的現金與借貸比例。 只要這一切搞定，球季開打，球員其實不會受到多大的影響。但如果這件事拖太久， 我跟你打賭這一定會開始影響球員。去年，球團沒有為了追求任何一個大球員而開 出長約。雖然你不能把一切都歸咎在這事情上，但球隊在去年交易大限後的成績是 29勝31負，而且很很自然地被屏除在季後賽之外。 如果沒發生什麼別的意外，全新的經營團隊應該會為球隊帶來新的氣息，結束長達 十年不曾打入季後賽的窘境。 5. Who replaces Scott Feldman's stats when he invariably comes back to earth? 等Scott Feldman回到地球，誰來補上他去年帶給球隊的貢獻? Feldman essentially came out of nowhere last year to register 17 wins and post a 4.08 ERA, which was second only to staff ace Kevin Millwood. A solid minor league reliever, Feldman converted to starter in 2008 and put up the kind of numbers you'd expect from someone who strikes out only a few more than he walks: 6-8, 5.29 ERA. It's hard to imagine Feldman's sudden success of a season ago will prove permanent. Assuming some backslide, combined with the loss of Millwood, the Rangers could certainly use another arm to fill that void. 去年，Feldman就這麼冒出來然後留下17勝、自責分率4.08的成績。他的自責分率 4.08更是僅次於球隊一號先發Kevin Millwood(3.67)的球隊第二佳。Feldman在小 聯盟是一名穩定好用的後援投手，在2008年才轉任先發投手，而那年的成績是那種 「奪三振只比四死球多一點點」的投手能拿到的典型成績: 6勝8敗，自責分率5.29。 像Feldman這種投手，你很難想他去年的成功能夠持久。假設他的表現下滑，加上 Millwood的離隊，遊騎兵確實需要再找一名投手來填補投手戰力的空缺。 It would appear the Rangers are hoping another converted reliever will be the answer. C.J. Wilson has been starting this spring and there's some reason for hope. Although he hasn't started since his rookie season, Wilson did make 70 starts during his minor league career. Last year was easily his best as a major leaguer: He struck out 10.3 batters per nine innings and fared reasonably well against batters from both sides of the plate. On the Rangers website, Wilson is still listed as a reliever and seven other pitchers are listed as starters. Other than Harden, none of them have much of a proven track record at the major league level. Brandon McCarthy would seem to have some upside, but he's now 56 starts into his major league career and still hasn't shown much else than middling results. 遊騎兵正希望另外一名曾由先發轉後援的投手可以填補這個空缺，而這個任務在今 年春天就落到了C.J. Wilson身上，雖然他自從菜鳥球季就沒有先發過了--Wilson 在小聯盟曾先發過70場。去年是Wilson生涯表現最好的一年，他平均每九局能K掉 10.3個打者，而且不論對左打或右打都有相當好的壓制力。 在遊騎兵的網站，Wilson仍然被列為後援投手，而另外有7名投手被列為先發人選， 但除了Harden以外，其他人從未證明過自己在大聯盟層級也能是合格的先發投手。 Brandon McCarthy似乎是這群人裡比較好的，但他生涯在大聯盟的56場先發，表現 得也不過是個一般般的投手罷了。 -- 這篇文章有不少地方我看不大懂，也有不少地方不大能直接翻成中文， 所以我就照我的理解寫，不見得會將英文直翻，希望錯誤還算少。 如果有重大錯誤，還請板友們不吝指教，謝謝~ -- ◆ From: 118.160.166.204
※ 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1270288444.A.651.html

推 RobinsonCano:全聯盟打擊第二強的二壘手? 不就是我 04/03 18:01

推 JubeChocobo:Kinsler比較會幹砲 04/03 18:12

推 RobinsonCano:生涯目前是我多一點 不過想一想爭屁 爭第二... 04/03 18:14

推 TrueTears:樓樓上自肥 04/03 18:14

推 lienkai:Kinsler去年可是30-30 可惜打擊率太低 04/03 18:18

→ KennyKuo:我想我應該翻成"攻擊"第二強的二壘手會比較好... 04/03 18:20

→ KennyKuo:因為Utley跟Kinsler都有腿有砲，Cano沒有腿... 04/03 18:21

→ KennyKuo:現階段看來，Zoby, Cano, Kinsler, Hill都能爭"第二"... 04/03 18:22

推 RobinsonCano:原po真熱心 04/03 18:24

推 sky00231:Haden用球數過多的原因不是已經有人提出是壞球不是三振? 04/03 18:37

推 azlbf:Almor:你們看到我的車尾燈了嗎? 04/03 18:41

推 newseastar:郭大俠耶! 04/03 18:48

→ foggerx12x13:所以要比uzr大小了嗎 04/03 20:19

→ KennyKuo:就算考慮防守，Utley還是現役最強二壘手，毫無爭議。 04/03 20:47

推 wang4320:某禿頭表示: 04/03 21:00

→ KennyKuo:某光頭表示: 禿頭拿AL MVP那年，老子比他更有資格拿!!! 04/03 21:11

→ kriminell:"the middle"是指中間防線,跟年齡無關 04/03 21:29

推 arsia:Utley又帥又會打又會守 真的是很犯規 04/03 21:52

推 alex710707:二壘手的守備評價順序為何?最強應該還是哈特力 接下來? 04/03 22:57

推 externaload:砲卓亞? 04/04 00:00

推 Carmelo3:Hill and Pedroia 04/04 00:00

推 abc12812:最弱的應該是蔣智賢 04/04 00:02

推 MingXDD:樓上XDDD 04/04 00:39

→ KennyKuo:回kriminell: 我本來也覺得是站在球場中線那幾隻野手， 04/04 00:54

→ KennyKuo:像是CF/2B/SS。但文中提到C，所以我就沒把Middle翻出來。 04/04 00:56

→ KennyKuo:因為我覺得C應該不能算是middle fielders(簡稱middles)。 04/04 00:57

→ KennyKuo:不過文中是用going through the middle of the diamond 04/04 00:58

→ KennyKuo:也就是從鑽石型球場中間那一排野手(由下往上C,SS/2B,CF) 04/04 01:00

→ KennyKuo:文章的確是用the middles來稱呼這些人，只是我想不到適合 04/04 01:01

→ KennyKuo:的中文詞彙來統稱這群野手。 04/04 01:02

推 bluejason:回到台灣推一下~~ 04/04 01:56

→ foggerx12x13:我在講第二你在講第一...... 04/05 00:24