看板Foreign_Inv
這是我平常在用的分析師報告其中一篇.
彭博的也很不錯用.但價格大概是24,000 USD一年.
台灣也只有少數公司在用.
我因為學校和工作的關係,都可以免費用就是了.
Shares of The Boeing Company (BA - Free Boeing Stock Report) have been standouts over the past year, despite a somewhat stretched valuation by historical standards. (The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of around 22, which is slightly higher than the Value Line median.) In fact, the stock has been among the Dow旧 best performers of late, rising roughly 80% since the start of 2013, thanks to strong industry fundamentals, including a major up-cycle in the commercial aerospace sector. But what should
investors do now? Are these quality large-cap shares still worth purchasing? Or are greener pastures best found elsewhere? In this article, we歓l take a brief look at Boeing旧 business and perform an easy-to-follow SWOT analysis of the company, evaluating its Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats.
The Business
The Boeing Company is the world旧 leading aerospace outfit and the largest manufacturer of commercial jetliners and military aircraft combined, with over 174,000 employees and revenues fast approaching $85 billion annually. The Chicago, Illinois-based company also designs and manufactures rotorcraft, electronic and defense systems, missiles, satellites, launch vehicles, and advanced information and communication systems. And it provides various support services to NASA, the military, and the commercial
airline industry. There are three principal business segments, including Commercial Airplanes (about 60% of the top-line mix), Boeing Defense, Space & Security (40%), and Boeing Capital, the company旧 small financial solutions wing (less than 1%).
Strengths
Robust Commercial Order Book: Part of this is due to brisk demand for new airplanes, such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and its variants, coming out of the last recession. Aircraft are now being upgraded more frequently than ever before, it seems, which is helping the company and Airbus (a subsidiary of EADS), its primary European rival, to rack up new business wins. (Boeing旧 backlog stood at 4,800 jets and a record $345 billion at the end of the September interim.) And we expect this trend to persist
well into the future, given the intense competition, low interest rate environment, and heightened emphasis on light, fuel-efficient designs. This, in turn, should encourage Boeing to further increase its planned production rates, a move that would be good news for both earnings and cash flow.
The KC-46 Tanker Program: The success of this platform, based on the 767 jet liner, is supporting results throughout Boeing旧 otherwise-sluggish Defense, Space & Security segment, along with cost cuts and gains in fast-growing emerging markets. Notably, in 2011, the KC-46 won a key competition and was selected by the U.S. Air Force to replace aging KC-135 Stratotankers.
Financially Sound & Shareholder Friendly: Boeing, which maintains a healthy balance sheet (Financial Strength: A++), is committed to returning most of its cash from operations to shareholders in the form of either quarterly dividends or stock buybacks. Management旧 preference, we believe, is for repurchases (they are set to exceed $2 billion this year alone), since they would likely afford the company a bit more financial flexibility. We still anticipate a dividend hike in 2014 (to an annual rate of
$2.00 a share or more), however, and expect the shares to trade at a decent yield in the 1.5%-2% range going forward.
Weaknesses
High R&D Spending: While Boeing is trying to keep investment spending in check, R&D expenditures remain quite high ($3.3 billion, or 4% of sales, in 2012), which is squeezing margins and penalizing the bottom line. Moreover, while the pressures may ease somewhat over the next few quarters, we envision even higher spending levels later in the decade, as the company endeavors to leverage its popular 737 and 777 platforms.
Pension Costs: Boeing旧 pension load stood at a hefty $75 billion-plus at the end of last year, far more than the fair value of its plan旧 assets. This is forcing the company to continuously dip into its earnings to meet its obligations to retired workers. The profit drain is bound to persist, too, notwithstanding the likelihood of better investment returns and efforts to negotiate less-taxing pension plans with its labor unions.
Execution: Execution has been spotty at times, especially with regard to the important 787 program, which has gotten off to a rough start. Things seem to be getting better, however, and Boeing remains committed to resolving any operating glitches in a timely manner.
Opportunities
Industry Fundamentals: After crashing during the financial crisis and recession, the airline industry has been in a powerful recovery mode over the past few years, buoyed by pent-up demand, stable fuel prices, and an improved macroeconomic backdrop. In fact, carriers, by and large, are looking to secure new planes as quickly as possible these days, rather than, as has been the historical norm, defer a bulk of their deliveries. This suggests that the company will continue to have the wind at its back for
some time to come.
The 787 Dreamliner: This platform, as we挙e indicated, has been plagued by its share of delays and execution problems, and was even grounded briefly in the United States and several other countries earlier this year because of fire hazards related to its lithium-ion batteries. Yet, orders for the revolutionary long-range, fuel-efficient jet airliner -- it旧 the first commercial jet to use mostly composite materials -- continue to pile up. And we expect the 787 to become far more profitable in the years
to come (ramp-up costs are now quite high) and emerge as a leading driver of free cash flow. By the second half of the decade, 787 production rates should reach 14 per month, up from a rate of closer to 10 per month today.
Threats
Stepped-Up Competition: Orders are ramping for Bombardier旧 new CSeries jets (Bombardier Aerospace is a Canadian manufacturer) and for the C919 family of airliners produced by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac). This, along with an ongoing market-share battle with Airbus, could take a toll on Boeing旧 own order book over time, and compel the company to further boost R&D spending and upgrade its product lines with greater regularity.
Defense Spending: Though operating conditions are rather favorable for the core commercial business, this is not the case for Boeing旧 smaller defense unit. In fact, reductions in U.S. defense spending continue to hamper results across the Defense, Space & Security division. And we don急 see this situation reversing anytime soon, especially considering the push in Washington for more budgetary cuts.
That said, we think that the company will be able to offset the top-line headwinds, at least partially, by making inroads abroad and streamlining its overhead. Boeing has already made strides beefing up its international business (overseas sales tend to be pretty high-margined), which currently accounts for about 23% of the defense segment旧 total revenues and 40% of its work backlog. What旧 more, the company maintains its goal of eventually shedding $2.5 billion from the cost structure.
Conclusion
In sum, while these shares appear to be on the expensive side, there旧 a lot to like about the Boeing story, from the company旧 good finances and rising free cash flow to its booming commercial business and reasonably stable defense unit. Indeed, Boeing旧 strengths and opportunities look to easily outweigh its weaknesses and threats at present. Consequently, we believe that this Dow component still has a place in diversified equity portfolios.
: ※ 引述《croat (寫筆記苦惱中)》之銘言：
: : 我自己從2006年做投資到現在，訂過好幾種雜誌。
: : 巴隆跟彭博商周(我以前買的時候還是"商周"年代)這兩種對我而言，
: : 巴隆其實真的還挺不錯的，可是看了一年的結果，我覺得C/P值不如
: : Financial Time+ WSJ兩者合體。(這兩種看英文版很傷荷包，就算
: : 是數位版也挺貴的，雖然我都有訂XD。 如果需求量沒那麼大，對於
: : 公司消息不用太頻繁更新，看免錢這兩家的中文網就可以了。)
: : 彭博商業週刊形式就跟台灣商周差不多，覺得C/P值不高。
: : 另外你要是對於各國情勢或未來趨勢有興趣，可以看一下經濟學人，
: : 這也是一週一刊，我覺得內容比巴隆好。
: 我看過 Bloomberg Markets, Bloomberg Bussinessweek, 經濟學人.
: 簡單分享一下心得, Bloomberg的文章寫的面向與經濟學人不同,
: Bloomberg的文章常常是針對某人, 某公司的報導,
: 經濟學人則是針對時事的介紹, 比較不會提到個別的公司.
: 如果想要接觸歐美股市的個股方面的資料是可以讀讀Bloomberg.
: (但是它報導的股票常常是大漲一段的)
: 經濟學人的話, 感覺拿來作股票不太能用, 可能是因為它有憂鬱的科學的風格.
: 讓我錯過一次股市多頭.
: WSJ的話, 亞洲版大概就是可以讓你接觸到一些亞洲這區域的資料.
: 例如韓國, 印尼的個股...
--
愛落紅塵心已死，持刀抱劍了一生
刀狂劍癡
--
◆ From: 174.47.1.254
※ 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Foreign_Inv/M.1386108657.A.3D6.html
推 flied: 24,000 USD一年 ....... 12/04 07:21
推 sbkchou:真是大手筆..... 12/04 08:09
→ ntoufatman:SWOT.... 12/04 08:26
→ mk2:CFA寫的report很多面化,SWOT是其中之一,還有回測和預測數字 12/04 09:11
→ mk2:我再把其它報告補上來.這樣可以看個大概. 12/04 09:18
→ croat:好讚阿~24000真的大手筆 12/04 17:11